[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A very tight pressure gradient between
strong high pressure of 1034 mb centered just north of the Azores
and lower pressures over western Africa supports gale force winds,
with severe gusts, across the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya
in the Meteo-France area of responsibility. These conditions are
forecast to continue to at least 21/00 UTC. An altimeter pass
shows seas of 11-12 ft within the area of gales. Seas are expected
to be very rough, potentially building to 12-15 ft. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Guinea/Guinea-Bissau border near 11N15W to 05N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near
01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N of
the ITCZ between 21W and 28W, and S of 02N between 35W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Naples, Florida to 23N90W to 25N94W.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted behind the front in the
eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are seen over the NW
Gulf based on scatterometer data. Fresh NE winds are in the
Straits of Florida. Based on buoy data, seas are ranging from 7-9
ft in the northeast Gulf, 5-7 ft in the NW Gulf, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere. Visible satellite imagery indicate that a narrow line
of clouds is associated with the front.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will sink a bit
further S this evening, then stall just N of the Yucatan Channel
and over the Florida Straits later tonight. Fresh NE winds N of
the front will persist through tonight, before shifting to E and
SE Wed. Afterward, a strengthening high over the Mid-Atlantic
States will cause fresh to strong easterly winds over the E and S
central Gulf Wed evening through early Thu morning, including
the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh
E to SE return flow should dominate the entire Gulf by the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection has flared-up over eastern Cuba and Jamaica ahead of a
broad mid to upper-level trough that reaches southward from the
western Atlantic to the NW Caribbean. Isolated thunderstorms are
over the central Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are developing over Hispaniola under a diffluent pattern aloft.
High clouds associated with strong upper-level winds, ahead of
the above mentioned upper-level trough, are also noted across
the basin. Abundant moisture will persist over eastern Cuba,
Jamaica and Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, supporting locally
heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding.

Based on the most recent scatterometer data, moderate to locally
fresh N to NE winds are noted over the NW Caribbean, mainly N of
18N. Similar wind speeds are observed across the central Caribbean
mainly N of 13N. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the regional
waters of the Leeward Islands while gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere. Seas are generally 5-7 ft across the east and central
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan
Channel tonight and stall just N of the basin through Thu evening,
bringing fresh NE winds across the NW Caribbean tonight through
the remainder of the week. Pulses of strong winds are possible
across waters S of Cuba on Wed and Thu nights.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
the East Atlantic Gale Warning.

A cold front is moving off the SE Florida coast, extending from
31N72W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. A narrow line of clouds
is associated with the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds
are noted behind the cold front with seas of 3-6 ft. A broad
surface trough is ahead of the front and extends from 31N70W to
the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This trough is the reflection of
a mid to upper-level trough that crosses the western Atlantic
into the NW Caribbean. Upper diffluence ahead of the trough axis
is enhancing numerous showers and thunderstorms across the waters
between 65W and 75W, including eastern Cuba and Hispaniola.
Satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to
strong winds N of 25N and ahead of the trough to about 66W. A
weak cyclonic circulation is noted along the trough axis near
23.5N74W. Farther E, a weak 1014 mb low pressure is located near
26N34W. A well defined swirl of mainly low clouds is related to
the low. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under
the influence of a 1034 mb high pressure located just N of the
Azores near 41N26W. Seas are 11-13 ft between this high pressure
and aforementioned low pressure.

For the forecast west of 55W, the mid to upper-level trough
nearby will continue to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity
through Wed from the SE Bahamas and northward to 31N. The above
mentioned cold front will reach from 31N70W across the NW Bahamas
to the Florida Straits tonight, then stall from Bermuda across
the NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits. This front will slowly
weaken through the end of the week. Fresh to strong NE winds and
building seas will prevail NW of the front through Thu evening.

$$
GR
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