[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191642
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A very tight pressure gradient between
strong high pressure of 1036 mb centered north of the Azores and
lower pressures over western Africa will allow for gale-force
north winds to develop along and near the coast of Morocco
today, 19/1200 UTC through at least Wed morning, 20/12000 UTC.
Seas are expected to be rough, potentially building to 12-15 ft.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France
at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Guinea/Guinea-Bissau border near 11N15W to 05N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near
02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 00N to 05N between 14W and 24W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03S to 04N between 27W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Naples, Florida to 24N88W to 25N94W.
Fresh to strong north-northeasterly winds are noted behind the
front in the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are
noted in the western Gulf.  Based on buoy data, seas are ranging
from 7-9 ft in the northeast Gulf, 4-6 ft in the western Gulf,
and seas 3-5 ft in the southeast Gulf. No significant convection
is noted along this front.

For the forecast, Winds north of the front will diminish to
moderate to fresh later this afternoon. The front will stall
this evening from the Florida Straits westward to 23N90W. Fresh
to strong E winds are forecast Wed night through Thu night over
portions of the S and E Gulf, including near the Yucatan
Peninsula and Florida Straits.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface trough extends along eastern Cuba. This trough
is supported by a broad mid to upper-level troughing that
reaches southward from the western Atlantic to the central
Caribbean.  This set-up of these features has perturbed the
weather pattern over most of the central Caribbean waters.
Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the SE coast of Cuba and
north of Jamaica. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the
central Caribbean, south of Jamaica and Haiti. A 1009 mb low is
analyzed near 11N78W. Scattered moderate convection is off the
coasts of Colombia and Panama, S of 12N between 75W and 79W.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail across the eastern and
central Caribbean with seas 4-7 ft. Light to gentle northerly
winds are noted in the NW basin with 2-4 ft seas.

The heavy rainfall threat has diminished moderately for
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. However, scattered thunderstorms
could still produce daily rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches over
the next couple of days, with localized flooding possible.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will persist over the N central Caribbean near Jamaica and E
Cuba through this evening. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail
over the E Caribbean through Thu afternoon, then become moderate
by Thu evening. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach the Yucatan
Channel tonight and stall just N of the basin through Thu,
bringing fresh NE winds across the NW Caribbean tonight through
the remainder of the week. Pulses of strong winds are possible
across waters S of Cuba during this period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
the East Atlantic Gale Warning.

A cold front is moving off the SE Florida coast, extending from
31N75W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered showers are
noted along and within 60 nm of the front.  Fresh to strong
northerly winds are noted behind the cold front with seas 3-6
ft. A broad trough extends from 30N73W to eastern Cuba near
22N77W. This trough and a mid- to upper-level trough is
enhancing numerous moderate scattered strong convection from 22N
to 31N between 66W and 76W. Seas are 6-8 ft near the trough.

In the eastern Atlantic, strong high pressure of 1036 mb is
centered north of the Azores. Its related tight gradient is
producing strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas north
of 27N and east of 38W. Seas are 10-15 ft in the area.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds will
continue E of the trough in the western Atlantic through this
afternoon. A mid to upper-level trough will continue to enhance
thunderstorm activity through at least tonight from the SE
Bahamas and northward to 28N. This cold front will reach from
31N70W across the NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits this
evening, then stall Wed from Bermuda to the Florida Straits. The
front will slowly weaken through the end of the week. Fresh to
strong NE winds and building seas will prevail NW of the front
tonight through Thu.

$$
AReinhart
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