[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall from Bahamas southward to the Greater Antilles: A
mid to upper-level trough stretching from the Bahamas to the
central Caribbean Sea is triggering scattered heavy showers and
strong thunderstorms near portions of the SE Bahamas, Turks and
Caicos Islands, eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, eastern Jamaica and
adjacent Caribbean and Atlantic waters. Enhanced by favorable
upper-level winds, periods of heavy rainfall are anticipated for
these locations through Tue. There is potential for flash flooding
and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Looking further
ahead, a robust mid-latitude trough digging southeastward from
offshore the SE U.S. toward the Caribbean Sea will reinforce the
mid-level trough and upper-level diffluence over this area during
midweek. As a result, this rainy pattern could persist through
Thu.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and extends to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from
04N20W to 02S41W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N-05N between 06W-17W. Isolated weak
convection is noted from 02S-06N between 27W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front has entered the NW Gulf this morning bringing
increasing moderate northerly winds. A pre-frontal trough is
generating scattered thunderstorms in the NE Gulf. The remainder
of the basin is under the influence of high pressure with light to
gentle winds. Seas are currently slight across the basin, with
conditions building in the north.

For the forecast, strong northerly winds will develop in the NE
Gulf by tonight as the front pushes southward across the eastern
basin. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh by Tue as the
front stalls across the southern Gulf. Fresh NE to E winds will
pulse tonight along the NW Yucatan Peninsula waters associated
with a diurnal trough. Meanwhile, patchy areas of smoke may reduce
visibility across portions of the southwest Gulf of Mexico, south
of 25N and west of 93W. Fresh to strong E winds are forecast late
Wed into Fri near the Yucatan Peninsula, Florida Straits and
southeast Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on the
potential for heavy rainfall over E Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola.

A broad surface trough extends across western Cuba. This feature
is supported by a mid-level low causing scattered thunderstorms
in the central Caribbean. Easterly winds are moderate to fresh in
the eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. A weak low pressure center
has migrated north into the Colombian Basin, disrupting the
easterly flow in the area. Winds are light to gentle in the
western half of the basin with 3-5 ft seas in the southwestern
portion and 2-4 ft seas in the northwestern portion.

For the forecast, A mid to upper-level trough will continue to
enhance heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
north-central Caribbean through Tue. Fresh to locally strong
trades over the eastern Caribbean will continue through Tue. As
the trough moves eastward, winds will diminish to moderate by Tue
night. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the Yucatan
Channel by Tue night and stall there through Wed, bringing
moderate to fresh NE winds across the NW basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on the
heavy rainfall event affecting the SE Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands.

A north-south line of thunderstorms extends roughly 120 nm off
northeast Florida behind a warm front. Scattered thunderstorms
persist near and east of the Bahamas due to a surface trough. A
high pressure ridge extends along 30N, with moderate to fresh SE
winds and rough seas south of 29N and east of the Bahamas. In the
eastern Atlantic a 1037 mb high pressure centered north of the
Azores is causing a tight pressure gradient and generating strong
to near force winds and rough seas north of 25N. Winds decrease
to gentle with moderate seas south of 23N. In the far eastern
Atlantic, near gale force N winds are expected to develop near the
coast of Morocco Tuesday and persist through Wednesday, with seas
building to 15 ft. Please see the latest forecast from Meteo-
France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will begin
moving eastward and extend from 31N75W through the central Bahamas
to Jamaica. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop E of this
trough this afternoon through Tue. The area of strong winds will
expand northward to 31N as the trough drifts eastward. A mid to
upper-level trough is expected to enhance thunderstorm activity
through mid-week east of the Bahamas and north of the Greater
Antilles. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast
tonight will reach from 31N74W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and
from 31N67W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba by Wed
morning. The front will stall by Wed and slowly weaken through
Thu. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will prevail NW of
the front Tue night through Thu morning.

$$
Flynn
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