[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Apr 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator
to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery,
weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall from SE Bahamas southward to the Greater
Antilles: A mid- to upper-level trough stretching from the Bahamas
to the central Caribbean Sea is triggering scattered heavy
showers and strong thunderstorms near portions of the SE Bahamas,
Turks and Caicos Islands, eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, eastern
Jamaica and adjacent Caribbean and Atlantic waters. Enhanced by
favorable upper-level winds, periods of heavy rainfall are
anticipated for these locations through Tue. There is potential
for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.
Looking further ahead, a robust mid- latitude trough digging
southeastward from offshore the SE U.S. toward the Caribbean Sea
will reinforce the mid-level trough and upper-level diffluence
over this area during midweek. As a result, this rainy pattern
could persist through Thu.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force N winds are expected to
develop near the coast of Morocco Tuesday and persist through
Wednesday, with seas building to 15 ft. Please see the latest
forecast from Meteo-France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and extends to 03N23W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N23W to 01S39W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N-05N between 06W-17W and from
00N-05N between 27W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An outflow boundary is producing scattered strong thunderstorms
over the NE Gulf. These storms should weaken later this morning. A
weak ridge extends east-west along 27N, maintaining light to
gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft over the NE and E central
Gulf. Moderate winds are over the Bay of Campeche with 3-4 ft
seas.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse tonight along
the NW Yucatan Peninsula waters associated with a diurnal trough.
A cold front will move into the northern Gulf this morning,
extend from Naples, FL to Brownsville, TX by early Tue, then stall
across the southern Gulf late Tue through Wed. Fresh to strong N
to NE winds and building seas will follow the front tonight into
Tue. Meanwhile, patchy areas of smoke may reduce visibility across
portions of the southwest Gulf of Mexico, south of 25N and west
of 93W. Fresh to strong E winds are forecast late Wed into Fri
near the Yucatan Peninsula, Florida Straits and southeast Gulf of
Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on the
potential for heavy rainfall over E Cuba and Hispaniola.

A surface trough extends from the NW Bahamas to the Cayman
Islands. A mid- to upper-level trough extends from the Bahamas to
the central Caribbean. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated
strong convection is occurring over the north-central Caribbean
Sea, north of 15N between 68W-76W, and north of 20N between 78W-
80W.

Fresh to locally strong trades are over the E Caribbean east of
74W, where seas are 6-8 ft. Light to gentle winds with 2-5 ft seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the mid to upper-level trough will continue to
enhance heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
north-central Caribbean through Tue. Fresh trades over the eastern
Caribbean will continue through Tue and then diminish as a
surface trough over the Bahamas moves eastward. Looking ahead, a
cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by early Wed and stall
there through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on the
heavy rainfall event affecting the SE Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands.

A surface trough extends from the NW Bahamas to the Cayman
Islands. A mid to upper-level trough extends over the W Atlantic
and Bahamas to the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is occurring from 20N-28N between 67.5W-76.5W.
Additional thunderstorms are noted off the coast of northern
Florida north of 29N between 78.5W-80W. Ridging is generally along
31N, leading to gentle S winds north of 29N and west of 60W, where
seas are 3-5 ft. Fresh SE winds prevail east of the Bahamas and
to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, where seas are 7-9 ft.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 27N42W to 25N33W.
Fresh to strong NE winds prevail north of 27N and east of 45W,
where seas are 8-12 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough extending from
the NW Bahamas to the Cayman Islands will begin moving E by late
tonight, extending from 31N75W through the central Bahamas to
Jamaica. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop E of this
trough late today through Tue and expand northward to 31N, as the
axis of the trough drifts eastward. The mid to upper-level trough
is expected to enhance thunderstorm activity through mid-week east
of the Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles. A cold front
moving off the northeast Florida coast tonight will reach from
31N67W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba by early Wed. The
front will then stall and begin to drift W Thu while weakening.
Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will prevail NW of the
front Tue night through Thu.

$$
Hagen
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