[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Apr 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential for Heavy Rainfall in SE Bahamas and Hispaniola:
A moist ESE trade-wind flow coupled with a pronounced mid-
level low near 22N74W is triggering strong convection over the SE
Bahamas. This convection is expected to gradually spread
southeastward over Hispaniola this afternoon and evening.
Enhanced by favorable upper-level winds, periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall are anticipated for the SE Bahamas through this
afternoon, and over Hispaniola this evening through Tue. Looking
further ahead, a robust mid-latitude trough digging
southeastward from offshore the SE U.S. toward the Caribbean Sea
will reinforce the mid-level low during midweek. As a result,
this rainy pattern might persist through midweek.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from
04N16W to 02N30W to 00S48W. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is flaring up S of the monsoon trough over
Liberia and Ivory Coast. Scattered moderate convection is also
from 01S to 05N between 15W and 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, an outflow boundary has emerged south of the
Florida panhandle. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are
offshore SE Louisiana and Mississippi. Otherwise, a modest
surface ridge extends from central Florida to the central Gulf
supporting light to gentle winds along with 1 to 3 ft seas over
the NE and E Gulf. Moderate return flow and 3 to 5 ft seas are
over the remainder of the basin, except for fresh E winds off
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The latest visible and fire weather data from GOES-16 shows
several weak agricultural fires are underway across southern
Mexico. While no smoke is evident over the SW Gulf/Bay of
Campeche at this time, it is possible that smoke may drift over
the waters as the fires continue to burn.

For the forecast, the modest surface ridge will support gentle
to moderate SE winds across the western Gulf through late Sun. A
cold front will move into the northern Gulf early Mon, then
stall across the southern Gulf late Tue through Wed. Fresh
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front.
Meanwhile, patchy areas of smoke may continue to reduce
visibility across portions of the Mexican offshore waters W of
95W and off southern Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aided by a pronounced mid-level low near 22N75W, convergent trade
winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across central and E Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. Refer to the
Special Features section for more information on potential heavy
rain across Hispaniola.

Satellite scatterometer imagery observed fresh to locally strong
trades over much of the eastern and central Caribbean due to the
pressure gradient between high pressure located well E of
Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia. Recent buoy and
altimeter data reveal 5 to 7 ft seas in this region. West of
75W, scatterometer found mainly gentle to moderate trades, where
seas are 3 to 5 ft. Winds may increase to fresh within the Gulf
of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support fresh to
strong trades over the S central Caribbean through this morning.
A broad trough is expected to develop from coastal Colombia to E
Cuba along 76W Mon through Tue night. Heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the north-central and NE
Caribbean tonight through Mon evening. Looking ahead, a cold
front will move across the Yucatan Channel by early Wed and
stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula along 20N Thu.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The combination of convergent moist trade winds and a pronounced
mid-level low between E Cuba and the SE Bahamas is producing
scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over the SE Bahamas and
nearby waters. Refer to the Special Features section for more
information on potential heavy rain across the SE Bahamas.

High pressure ridging extends across the western Atlantic to the
northern Bahamas and to central Florida. Gentle to moderate E
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 25N between 50 and
70W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are to the west of 70W.
A cold front curves westward from a low SW of the Azores across
31N31W through 26N40W to 30N50W. Satellite scatterometer and
altimetry data reveal moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas
of 8 to 10 ft present north of the cold front. Elsewhere,
Moderate to fresh E winds are observed in scatterometer data
south of 25N and west of 30W to the Lesser Antilles and the SE
Bahamas. Mainly fresh winds are noted north of the Caribbean
Islands where seas are up to 10 ft. Moderate NE winds and 5 to 7
ft seas are noted east of 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds south
of 25N and E of the Bahamas will diminish slightly today as high
pressure E of Bermuda shifts eastward. Meanwhile, a trough will
form over the Bahamas along 76W-77W on Mon. Low pressure will
form along this trough Mon night east of the NW Bahamas, then
shift northward Tue ahead of a cold front moving off the
northeast Florida coast by Mon night. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the SE Bahamas to central Cuba by Wed. Fresh to
strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front.

$$

Mora
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