[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Apr 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential for Heavy Rainfall in SE Bahamas and Hispaniola:
A moist ESE trade-wind flow is coupling with a pronounced mid-
level low near 22N74W to trigger strong convection over the SE
Bahamas. This convection is expected to gradually spread
southeastward over Hispaniola Sun afternoon and evening. Enhanced
by favorable upper-level winds, periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall are anticipated for the SE Bahamas through Sun afternoon,
and over Hispaniola Sun evening through Tue. Looking further
ahead, a robust mid-latitude trough digging southeastward from
offshore the SE U.S. toward the Caribbean Sea will reinforce the
mid-level low during midweek. As a result, this rainy pattern
might persist through midweek.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N18W. An ITCZ continues from 03N18W
through 02N30W to NE of Belem, Brazil near 01S48W. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is flaring up S of the
monsoon trough over Liberia and Ivory Coast. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is near both features from 01N to 05N
between 10W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is near the
ITCZ from 01N to 05N between 22W and the coast of Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1015 mb high
over the NE Gulf to the N Bay of Campeche. A surface trough
reaches northeastward from a 1011 mb low pressure near Tampico,
Mexico to the W central Gulf. Light to gentle winds along with 1
to 3 ft seas prevail near the high over the NE and E central
Gulf. Surface observations depict gentle to moderate southerly
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft across the W Gulf, and just N of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Mostly gentle easterly winds and seas at 2 to 4
ft prevail for the remainder of the Gulf, including the Yucatan
Channel and Straits of Florida.

The latest visible and fire weather data from GOES-16 shows
several weak agricultural fires underway across southern Mexico.
While no smoke is evident over the SW Gulf/Bay of Campeche at this
time, it is possible that smoke may drift over the waters as the
fires continue to burn.

For the forecast, the modest surface ridge will continue to
support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin through
late Sun. A cold front will move into the N Gulf Mon, then stall
across the S Gulf late Tue through Wed. Fresh northerly winds and
building seas will follow the front. Meanwhile, areas of smoke
inundate much of the Mexican offshore waters W of 93W.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aided by a pronounced mid-level low near 22N74W, convergent trade
winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across central and E Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. Refer to the
Special Features section for more information on potential heavy
rain across Hispaniola.

Earlier satellite scatterometer and altimetery data show moderate
to fresh easterly trades and 5 to 7 ft seas across the E, N
central and central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong ENE trades with
seas at 6 to 8 ft are present over the S central basin, just N of
Colombia. Gentle to moderate ENE to E trades and seas of 3 to 6 ft
prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support fresh to
strong trades over the S central Caribbean through Sun morning. A
broad trough is expected to develop from coastal Colombia to E
Cuba along 76W Mon through Tue night. Active convection is
expected across the E and NE Caribbean Sun night through Mon
evening. Looking ahead, a cold front will move across the Yucatan
Channel early Wed and stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan
Peninsula along 20N Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The combination of convergent moist trade winds and a pronounced
mid-level low between E Cuba and the SE Bahamas is producing
scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over the SE Bahamas and
nearby waters. Refer to the Special Features section for more
information on potential heavy rain across the SE Bahamas. A
shear line persists along 20N between 43W and 65W, patchy showers
are seen near it. A cold front curves westward from a low SW of
the Azores across 31N31W through 27N40W to 31N51W. Clouds and
patchy rain are evident up to 100 nm S, and up to 50 nm N of this
front.

Satellite scatterometer and altimetery data late this afternoon
reveal fresh to strong ENE trades with 8 to 10 ft seas near and N
of the shear line to 24N between 42W and 70W. Moderate to fresh N
to NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are present near the cold
front, N of 26N between 32W and 48W. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE
trades with seas at 6 to 8 ft are found from 04N to 25N between
the central African coast and 42W. Fresh NE trades with seas at 7
to 9 ft are evident near the Canary Islands N of 25N between the
Sahara coast and 30W. Light to gentle southerly winds with 4 to 5
ft seas are noted N of 28N between 75W and the Georgia-Florida
coast. Gentle to moderate northerly trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft
prevail the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the shear line will drift north
and dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong trade winds S of 24N and E
of the Bahamas will diminish slightly Sun as high pressure E of
Bermuda shifts eastward. Meanwhile, a trough will form over the
Bahamas along 76W-77W on Mon. Low pressure will form along this
trough Mon night E of the NW Bahamas, then shift northward Tue
ahead of a cold front moving off the NE Florida coast by Mon
night. The front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by Wed.
Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front.

$$

Chan
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