[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

Gale-force winds are forecast to be pulsing during the nighttime
and early morning hours, for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
and for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The surface pressure
gradient, that is between high pressure that is to the north of
the Caribbean Sea and lower surface pressures in Colombia, will
support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean
Sea through Saturday. Minimal gale force winds will pulse just
offshore Colombia at night through Wed night. The wave heights
will be ranging from 8 feet to 13 feet, during the hours of the
comparatively fastest wind speeds.

Please, read the High Seas forecast at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, or the Offshore Forecast at
the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections of
Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from
03N20W, to 01N27W, the Equator along 28W, to 02S32W, 01S39W, and
01S43W. Precipitation: numerous strong is inland, between SW
sections of Ivory Coast, covering all of Liberia, to the SE
sections of Sierra Leone. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere, from 07N southward from 31W eastward, and
from 06N southward between 40W and Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1027 mb high
pressure center that is near 32N72W, into the west central Gulf of
Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean, Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico, to the west and northwest
of the 31N45W-to-20N72W frontal boundary, and in the Gulf of
Mexico. The surface pressure gradient, that exists between the
high pressure and lower pressures in the south central U.S.A.
and NE Mexico, results in fresh to strong SE to S winds in most
of the Gulf, with the exception of light to gentle winds in the
NE part of the basin, particularly N of 26N and E of 85W. The wave
heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet in the north central
sections; and from 5 feet to 7 feet elsewhere. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the
northwestern corner of the area, from 27N northward from 90W
westward.

It is possible that smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may
reduce the visibility in parts of the western Gulf of Mexico today.
The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf waters and
a lower pressures over NE Mexico will continue to support fresh to
strong southerly winds over the western half of the Gulf into Wed
night. These winds are expanding eastward over parts of the
eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. A weak cold front
will move off the Texas coast Wed night, and extend over the
northern Gulf on Thu, then stall. The western part of the front
will lift back north as a warm front on Fri, while its remainder
remains stationary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, for the Caribbean Sea.

Strong to near gale-force NE winds are within 135 nm of the coast
of Colombia between 74W and 78W. Fresh to strong NE winds are in
the central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh easterly winds
are in the NW corner of the area. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
in the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. The wave heights
range from 8 feet to 11 feet near the coast of Colombia; from 6
feet to 8 feet in the Windward passage; from 6 feet to 7 feet in
the lee of Cuba; and from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the
area.

Shallow moisture, that is embedded in the trade wind flow, is
producing isolated to scattered passing rainshowers. The
comparatively greatest amount of cloudiness and precipitation
covers the areas that are from the Windward Passage and moving
into Honduras and the northern sections of Nicaragua. This is
related to the remnants of a frontal boundary.

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the Caribbean
Sea and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong
trades over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia into Sat night. Minimal gale force winds will pulse just
offshore Colombia at night through Wed night. Pulsing fresh to
strong northeast winds are also expected in the lee of Cuba and
Windward Passage into late night. Fresh to locally strong east to
southeast winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night
through Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N45W to 27N50W, to 22N60W. A
stationary front continues from 22N60W, to the northern coast of
Hispaniola near 20N72W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6
feet from 70W westward; and from 7 feet to 9 feet from the
frontal boundary northward and northwestward. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the
frontal boundary. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Atlantic Ocean to the west and northwest of the frontal boundary.
A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 32N72W. The sea heights
range from 8 feet to 13 feet from from 13N northward from 40W
eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere
from 40W eastward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet
from 16N northward between 40W and 50W; and from 5 feet to 8 feet
elsewhere to the south and southeast of the frontal boundary.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 32N25W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is within 500 nm of the center in the
southwestern semicircle.

One surface trough is along 36W/37W from 20N to 26N. A second
surface trough curves from 20N44W to 17N49W to 13N51W. The wave
heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from the cold front northward.
The wave heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 09N to the cold
front between 50W and 60W. The wave heights range from 6 feet to
8 feet from 09N southward between 40W and 60W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of
each surface trough.

A cold front extending from 26N50W to N of Puerto Rico will move
slowly SE through Wed night, then stall Thu along 20N, E of 60W,
and finally dissipate Fri. Seas of 10-15 ft in NW swell behind the
front will continue to propagate across the NE forecast waters
into Wed. Another cold front will clip the NE waters Thu into Thu
night. A belt of fresh to strong NE to E winds with seas of 8 to 9
ft will persist across the region S of 23N into the start of next
week. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast
Fri and become stationary Fri night.

$$
mt/sk
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