[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Apr 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the Caribbean
Sea and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades over
the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Minimal gale force winds
will pulse just offshore Colombia at night through Wed night.
Seas are forecast to build to 12 ft during the strongest winds.

Please read the High Seas forecast at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, or the Offshore Forecast at
the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 01S28W. The ITCZ extends
from 01S28W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection can be found from 00N-05N between 10W-27W, and near
the coast of Brazil S of 02N and W of 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1026 mb located midway between the SE of United
States and Bermuda extends a ridge across the Gulf region. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures
over the south-central United States and NE Mexico results in
fresh to strong SE to S winds across most of the Gulf, with the
exception of light to gentle winds over the NE part of the basin,
particularly N of 26N and E of 85W. Recent scatterometer data show
that the strongest winds are occurring off western Cuba, and over
the NW Gulf. Seas are 6 to 9 ft N of 22N and W of 90W, and 6 to 7
ft off western Cuba. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere, except
within about 60 nm W of Florida and in the E Bay of Campeche.
Multilayer clouds are observed over the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across
the Gulf waters and a lower pressures over NE Mexico will continue
to support fresh to strong southerly winds over the western half
of the Gulf through Wed. These winds are expanding eastward over
parts of the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. A
weak cold front will move off the Texas coast on Wed night, and
extend over the northern Gulf on Thu, then stall. The western part
of the front will lift back north as a warm front on Fri, while
its remainder remains stationary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information regarding
the Gale Warning off Colombia.

Fresh to strong NE winds persist in the Windward passage and in
the lee of eastern Cuba. Similar wind speeds are over the south-
central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Mainly fresh E winds are over the NW Caribbean
affecting mainly the waters N of 20N and W of 84W. Moderate to
fresh trades are elsewhere. Sea heights are 8 to 11 ft near the
coast of Colombia, 6 to 8 ft in the Windward passage, 6 to 7 ft in
the lee of Cuba, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere across the basin.

Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is noted across
the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. These
patches of low level moisture, are more concentrated between
Haiti and Jamaica in association with the remnants of a frontal
boundary. Similar cloudiness is noted over parts of Central
America.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian low will continue to support
fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia through Sat. Minimal gale force winds will pulse
just offshore Colombia at night through Wed night. Pulsing fresh
to strong northeast winds are also expected in the lee of Cuba and
Windward Passage into late night. Fresh to locally strong east to
southeast winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night into
Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N48W and continues
southwestward to 23N60W, where it transitions into a stationary
front that extends into the Windward Passage. A band of mainly low
clouds with possible showers is associated with the front.
Satellite- derived wind data provide observations of fresh to
strong NW winds behind the front, especially N of 29N W of front
to 65W. An altimeter pass indicates seas of 9 to 14 ft within
these wind speeds. Fresh to strong NE winds are also noted N of
the stationary portion of the front to about 24N. High pressure of
1026 mb located midway between the SE of United States and
Bermuda follows the front. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are
affecting the waters between the front and the eastern coast of
Florida, including also the Bahamas. E of the front, a 1020 high
pressure is situated near 31N29W and dominates the remainder of
the Atlantic forecast region. Seas of 8-13 ft in NW to N swell are
over the eastern Atlantic just N of the Cabo Verde Islands and E
of 40W. The highest seas are just W of the Madeira Islands to
about 22W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
move slowly across the waters S of 22N today and Wed, then gradually
weaken on Thu. Seas of 10-15 ft in NW swell behind the front will
continue to propagate across the NE forecast waters through Wed.
Another cold front will clip the NE waters Wed night into Thu. A
belt of fresh to strong NE to E winds with seas of 8 to 9 ft will
persist across the region S of 23N through the upcoming weekend.
A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri
and become stationary Fri night.

$$
GR
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