[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120444
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0444 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale warning in the Caribbean Sea...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the
Caribbean Sea and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong
trades over the south-central Caribbean into Fri night. Gales
will pulse just offshore Colombia at night through Wed night. Seas
are forecast to build to 12 ft during the strongest winds.

Please read the High Seas forecast at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, or the Offshore Forecast at
the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 01S31W. The ITCZ extends from
01S31W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection remains active from S of 04N and between 15W and 27W.
Similar convection is present near the coast of Brazil S of 02N
and W of 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high pressure system between the SE United States and
Bermuda continues to influence the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining
fairly tranquil weather conditions over most of the basin. A few
showers are observed in the northern portion of the Gulf, but the
activity is decreasing. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure and lower pressures over the south-central United States
and NE Mexico results in fresh to locally strong anticyclonic
winds over the Gulf, except for light to gentle breezes N of 26N
and E of 85W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show that the
strongest winds are occurring off NW Cuba, northern Yucatan and
within 60 nm of the northern Gulf coast. Seas of 5-8 ft are
present across the Gulf, except for 2-5 ft in the NE Gulf and E
Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will
continue to support fresh to strong southerly winds over the
western half of the Gulf through Wed. These winds will expand
eastward on Tue as the high pressure E of the area continues to
shift eastward. A weak cold front will move off the Texas coast on
Wed night, then become stationary over the northern Gulf on Thu.
The western part of the front will lift back north as a warm front
on Fri, while its remainder remains stationary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information regarding
the gale warning off Colombia.

A weakening stationary front reaches the Windward Passage, where
it becomes a surface trough that continues to near 16N83W. A few
weak showers are noted near the surface trough. The rest of the
basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge positioned well north of
the Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned
high pressure and lower pressures over NW South America result in
fresh to strong trades over the central and NW Caribbean. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass and surface observations
indicate that the strongest winds are occurring off NW Colombia
and the Gulf of Venezuela, Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba.
Moderate or weaker trades are noted elsewhere. Seas of 6-9 ft are
found in the south- central Caribbean, while seas of 4-7 ft are
present elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian low will support fresh to
strong trades over the south-central Caribbean into Fri night.
Gales will pulse just offshore Colombia at night through Wed
night. Pulsing fresh to strong northeast winds are expected at
night and into the mornings in the lee of Cuba and Windward
Passage into Tue night. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night into Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N50W and
continues southwestward to 23N63W, where it transitions into a
stationary front that travels into the Windward Passage.
Cloudiness and some weaker showers are observed within 120 nm
ahead of the frontal boundary, mainly N of 22N. Satellite-derived
data show that fresh to strong N-NE winds are found behind the
frontal boundary, primarily S of 26N and W of 65W. The strongest
winds are present S of 23N, including at the entrance of the
Windward Passage, and N of 29N and E of 64W. NW swell is producing
seas of 8-14 ft between the front and 69W and N of 25N.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a 1023 mb high pressure
system near 30N33W, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions
across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. Northerly swell
is producing a large region of 8-13 ft seas, mainly N of 15N and E
of 45W. Seas greater than 12 ft are occurring near and north of
the Canary Islands. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds
and seas of 5-8 ft prevail elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front extending from 31N50W
to just N of Hispaniola will gradually move east through tonight,
then stall along 21N, E of 60W into late week. Fresh to strong NW
winds will continue N of 28N and E of 70W through tonight, while
fresh to strong NE winds will prevail within 150 nm N of the front
into late week. Locally strong E winds may pulse at times N of
Hispaniola through the week. Seas of 12-15 ft will continue to
propagate across the NE forecast waters in the wake of the front
through Tue night. High pressure will follow the front, and will
remain in control of the weather pattern across the region through
Fri. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast
Fri and become stationary Fri night.

$$
DELGADO
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