[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale warning in the Caribbean Sea...

High pressure north of the area will support winds pulsing to
gale force off Colombia tonight and Wed night. Please read the
High Seas forecast at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, or the Offshore Forecast at
the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W to 02S25W. The ITCZ continues from 02S25W to
03230W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
persists from 02S to 03N between 12W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure off northeast Florida
to the north central Gulf coast. Recent scatterometer and buoy
data indicate moderate to fresh SE winds over much of the Gulf,
with 6 to 8 ft seas. The exception is gentle to moderate SE winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas over the northeast Gulf under the influence of
the ridge. Judging by satellite imagery and observations near
Tampico, Mexico, visibility may be limited to 5 nm over the west-
central Gulf due to areas of smoke from agricultural fires. No
significant showers or thunderstorms are noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge across
the northern Gulf and low pressure over NE Mexico will continue
to support fresh to strong southerly winds over the western half
of the Gulf through Wed. These winds will expand eastward on Tue
as the high pressure east of the area continues to shift
eastward. A weak cold front will move off the Texas coast on Wed
night, then become stationary over the northern Gulf on Thu. The
western part of the front will lift back north as a warm front on
Fri, while its remainder remains stationary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information regarding
the gale warning off Colombia.

A trough, the remnant of a frontal boundary, will reach from the
Windward Passage to Cabo Gracias a Dios in eastern Honduras.
Strong to near gale force winds are noted off Colombia, with seas
to to 8 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted elsewhere from 10N
to 15N between 70W and 75W. Fresh to strong NE winds are evident
through the Windward Passage with seas to 5 ft. For the remainder
of the area, moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 4 to 6 ft. No
significant convection is noted.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast winds are
expected at night and into the mornings in the lee of Cuba and
Windward Passage into Tue night. Fresh to locally strong east to
southeast winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night into
Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N52W to 25N65W then is stationary to
the Windward Passage. A ridge is evident west of the front along
30N to 1024 mb high pressure centered off northeast Florida. Fresh
to strong NW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are noted between the front
and the ridge north of 27N between the front to 60W. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft over open
waters. Farther east, weak 1018 mb low pressure is centered near
28N45W with a stationary front to another 1018 mb low near 24N35W.
Gentle to moderate winds are evident across the area. Recent
altimeter satellite passes show 8 to 12 ft seas north of 15N east
of 40W, with 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong NW winds will
continue N of 28N and E of 70W through tonight, while fresh to
strong NE winds will prevail within 150 km N of the front into
late week. Locally strong E winds may pulse at times N of
Hispaniola through the week. Seas of 12-15 ft will continue to
propagate across the NE forecast waters in the wake of the front
through Tue night. High pressure will follow the front, and will
remain in control of the weather pattern across the region through
Fri. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast
Fri and become stationary Fri night.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net