[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A low pressure center is expected to form to the south of the
Azores on Saturday. The low pressure center will move
southeastward, reaching a position near 34N23W by 0600 UTC on
Sunday. Meteo-France expects near gale to gale force NW winds on
the southwestern side of this low pressure center, which will
impact the marine zones: Madeira, Irving, and Meteor, from late
on Saturday night into early Sunday. It is possible that areas
that are to the north of 29N, between 26W and 31W, may experience
gale- force winds. The wind speeds will diminish to less than
gale- force later on Sunday, as the low pressure center weakens.
It is likely to find sea heights that are in the range of 15 feet
to 20 feet within the area of near gale to gale-force winds.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by
Meteo- France, at the website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html,
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border of the coastal
plains of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 06N17W and
04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W, to 02N28W, to the Equator
along 28W, to 01S30W and 02S35W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is from 01N to 06N between 06W and 18W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area from
10N southward from 60W eastward. A surface trough is along 52W/53W
from 10N southward to French Guiana. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 135 nm on either
side of the trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through inland Florida near 28N82W, into
the central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
near 20N96W. The stationary front curves northward to 27N100W in
Mexico. Precipitation: high level clouds are moving toward the
east and northeast, across the entire area. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from the
stationary front northward, from 85W westward. Moderate to fresh
SE winds are from the stationary front southward between 85W and
90W, and from the front northward from 90W eastward. Strong winds
were within 180 nm to the north of the front between 90W and 95W,
during the morning and mid-afternoon hours of Friday. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the SW corner, to 5 feet to
7 feet elsewhere from 90W westward. The sea heights range from 3
feet to 6 feet from 90W eastward.

A stationary front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida, to near
Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms continue along this
boundary. This front will meander over the area through the
weekend, then gradually dissipate early next week. Southerly flow
will return through the basin after the boundary dissipates.
Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is moving across the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico and could reduce visibility through
tonight. Mariners who encounter reduced visibility due to smoke
are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather
Service, by calling 305-229-4425.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level to upper level ridge covers the western two-thirds
of the Caribbean Sea. A separate area of upper level anticyclonic
wind flow is pushing high level clouds anticyclonically, from 16N
southward. An inverted trough is bringing cyclonic wind flow to
the rest of the area. Trade wind rainshowers span the Caribbean
Sea. Warming cloud top temperatures, and weakening but remnant
rainshowers are in the waters that are from 12N southward from
Colombia westward.

Fresh to strong easterly winds cover the area from 80W eastward,
and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere.
The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet within 180 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 74W and 78W. The sea heights range from
6 feet to 8 feet, elsewhere, from 80W eastward. The sea heights
are ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet from Honduras northward from 80W
westward.

High pressure to the north of the area will continue to sustain
fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia, into Sunday. The fresh to strong winds in the
Gulf of Honduras will diminish by Sat. Moderate to fresh winds
will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and larger
trade wind swell, will continue to the east of the Lesser
Antilles through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force winds in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A stationary front is along 31N76W to inland Florida near 28N82W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are within 300 nm to the SE
of the stationary front.

A cold front curves through 31N26W, to 27N30W, to 24N36W. The
front becomes dissipating from 24N36W, to 21N50W and 21N59W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on either
side of the frontal boundary. A 1024 mb high pressure center is
near 29N53W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean to the north of the cold front. Fresh to strong NW winds are
from 30N northward between 33W and 44W. Fresh northerly winds are
from the front northward, elsewhere between 26W and 50W. Fresh NE
winds cover the areas that are from the cold front southward
between 40W and 60W. Fresh SE winds are from Hispaniola to 23N
between 70W and 76W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet
from the cold front northward between 30W and 43W. The sea heights
range from 6 feet to 9 feet from the cold front northward between
43W and 60W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from the
cold front southward between 45W and 60W. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front has stalled this evening, and it now stretches from
31N76W to central Florida. Scattered thunderstorms, some strong,
continue along and just ahead of this front. Fresh to strong S
winds are ahead of this front, mainly W of 70W and N of 27N. This
front will generally remain stationary into Sun, before it is
reinforced by a new cold front for the start of next week.

$$
MT/SK
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