[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012307
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2250 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure system is expected to
form south of the Azores on Sat. The low will move southeastward,
reaching a position near 34N23W by 0600 UTC on Sun. Meteo-France
expects near gale to gale force NW winds on the southwest side of
this low pressure, which will impact the marine zones Irving and
Meteor late Sat night into early Sun. Areas north of 29N, roughly
between 26W and 31W could potentially experience gale force winds.
Winds will diminish below gale force later Sun as the low weakens.
Seas of 15-20 ft are likely within the area of near gale to gale
winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone and reaches into the Atlantic near 08N13W to 04N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02S32W to 01S36W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is occurring within 240 nm of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Tampa Bay, FL to 23N94W to 20N95W
and inland into Mexico near 20N97W. A surface trough extends from
Port Charlotte, FL to 25N87W. The latest satellite imagery and
Doppler radar data from Florida show scattered moderate convection
within 60 nm either side of the surface trough. Another area of
scattered showers and isolated tstorms is noted over the central
Gulf from 26N to 27.5N between 86.5W and 90.5W. Recent surface
observations show fresh east winds across portions of the NW and
west-central Gulf, mainly north of 24.5N and west of 90W. Fresh
winds may also be occurring near the N coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds are observed elsewhere. Seas
as high as 7 ft have recently been observed by NOAA buoy 42002
near 26.1N 93.7W. This is in the same area where the fresh winds
are occurring. Seas of 5-7 ft likely currently prevail over the NW
Gulf with 3-5 ft seas elsewhere, except up to 6 ft in the Yucatan
Channel, and 1-3 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche.

Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may be restricting
visibility over portions of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Mariners who encounter reduced visibility due to smoke are
encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather
Service, by calling 305-229-4425.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will drift
northward as a warm front through midday Sat, then linger across
the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend. Although
thunderstorms have recently weakened near the front, a line of
strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to redevelop along the
front during the day on Sat, affecting portions of the north-
central and NE Gulf of Mexico. This line of storms will move SE
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the early evening hours.
These thunderstorms are likely to produce scattered severe wind
gusts and possibly small hail, along with frequent cloud-to-
surface lightning strikes. The front will dissipate early next
week with southerly return flow dominating the basin. Smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico is moving across the southwest Gulf
of Mexico and could reduce visibility through tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid and upper level ridging prevails over the western Caribbean,
suppressing convection. Little in the way of any significant
shower activity is noted over the eastern portion of the basin
either, despite weak upper-level troughing in place. Scattered
strong convection is noted mainly over land across portions of
northern Colombia and Panama. Fresh trades prevail over most of
the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras.
Moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 5-8 ft prevail across
most of the eastern and central basin, with 4-7 ft seas in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to sustain fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia through Sat night. The fresh to strong
winds south of Dominican Republic and in the Gulf of Honduras will
diminish by Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning over the eastern Atlantic.

A cold front is analyzed from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral, FL. A
pre-frontal surface trough extends south of the front from 30N74W
to Stuart, FL. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 90 nm either side of the surface trough, mainly north of
26.5N and west of 69.5W. Fresh SW winds are likely occurring to
the east of the front, mainly north of 29N. Seas are 6-8 ft north
of 28N, near and east of the front. Farther south, fresh trades
are occurring north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with seas 6-7
ft. A 1026 mb surface high pressure is centered near 30N54W. The
high pressure extends a broad surface ridge west-southwestward to
27N65W to the Florida Keys. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
are near the ridge axis, including over the central Bahamas. Seas
of 4-6 ft prevail north of 25N between 58W-70W.

A cold front extends from the Azores to 31N30W to 25N36W to
22N47W. A shear line continues from 22N47W to 21N59W to 22.5N72W.
Isolated showers are possible along and within 120 nm east of the
cold front. Moderate to fresh N winds are behind the cold front.
Seas are 8-13 ft across the area north of 23N between 32W-52W in
NW swell. Fresh trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic from
09N-20N, west of 45W, with seas of 6-8 ft in the area. Strong N to
NE winds are likely occurring within 120 nm of the coast of
Morocco.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh easterly winds south of 23N
and west of 70W will prevail through Sat. Fresh southerly winds
ahead of the cold front east of Florida will continue moving
eastward to the north of 28N as the front progresses eastward
through tonight. The front is forecast to become stationary Sat
night through Sun along 29/30N. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to precede the front through early
Sat. Another round of stronger thunderstorms is likely to affect
the waters east of Florida Sat evening through early Sun morning.
Another cold front will push southward across the basin Sun into
early next week.

$$
Hagen
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