[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 092350
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles
northeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Depression Mindy, located
offshore the southeast coast of the United States.

The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western
Caribbean Sea.  This system is forecast to move into the Bay of
Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface trough located over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive to support some gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
before the system moves inland over mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast
of Africa in the next day or so.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week as the system moves
west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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