[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082338
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Sep 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Larry is centered near 28.9N 59.2W at 08/2100 UTC or
350 nm ESE of Bermuda moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 966 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95
kt with gusts to 115 kt. Seas are peaking at 40 ft near and just
N of the center and in the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted near 90 nm N and E of the
center. Larry will continue on a NW track through Thu morning,
then the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thu,
and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days,
but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time.
For more information, please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml.

Tropical Storm Mindy is centered near 29.0N 86.3W at 08/2100 UTC
or 80 nm WSW of Apalachicola Florida moving NE at 18 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 22N to the northern Gulf
coast E of 93W. Seas ranged between 3 to 5 feet with isolated
observation to 9 ft south of Apalachicola. On the forecast
track, the center of Mindy is expected to cross the coastline of
the Florida Panhandle later tonight, and then move offshore of
the southeastern United States into the western Atlantic Ocean by
tomorrow. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W from 19N southward across
the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered
showers are noted from 09N to 14N between 20W and 25W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 16N southward
and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found
from 08N to 15N between 35W and 42W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W from 15N southward
across Guyana, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present over N Guyana and NE Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the Senegal-Guinea Bissau border
near 13N16W to 15N26W. Farther W, the ITCZ extends from 07N41W
to 07N58W, just N of Guyana-Suriname border. Scattered moderate
convection is seen SW of the monsoon trough from 06N to 08N
between 30W and 33W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident near the ITCZ from 06N to 09N between 45W
and 57W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Mindy.

Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft
are found across the central and southwest Gulf, especially near
stronger thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are
occurring at the SE Gulf, while light to gentle winds are seen
for the W Gulf; seas at both areas are near 3 ft.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Mindy near 29.0N 86.3W 1008 mb at
5 PM EDT moving NE at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts
45 kt. Mindy will move inland to 30.3N 84.1W Thu morning, weaken
to a tropical depression near 31.3N 80.0W Thu afternoon, 32.3N
75.6W Fri morning, 32.9N 72.7W Fri afternoon, become a remnant
low and move to 33.4N 69.6W Sat morning, and 33.3N 68.5W Sat
afternoon. Mindy will dissipate Sun afternoon. On the forecast
track, the center of Mindy is expected to cross the coastline of
the Florida Panhandle later tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are combining with an upper-level trough
across W Cuba and the N central basin to trigger scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the central and E basin, including
Jamaica. Converging surface winds near the E end of the E Pacific
monsoon trough are causing isolated thunderstorms near the coast
of Honduras, Guatemala and W Panama. Moderate to locally fresh
trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft are evident over the central basin.
Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the
rest of the basin.

For the forecast, swells generated by Hurricane Larry will
continue to propagate across the Atlantic waters of the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through tonight. Seas will
gradually subside from E to W. As Larry moves N of the forecast
region on Thu, the Atlantic ridge will build westward N of the
Caribbean Sea bringing an increase in the trade wind flow late
Thu into Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Major Hurricane Larry SE of Bermuda.

SW of Bermuda, a surface trough near 27N68W is coupling with an
upper-level trough near 30N70W to trigger scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms N of 28N between 67W and 70W. Farther W,
converging SW to W winds are producing similar conditions from
the NW Bahamas and northward to near 30N. Refer to the Tropical
Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection
across the Atlantic Basin.

Large swell generated by Larry are creating 7 to 11 ft seas from
N of Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands to
beyond 31N. Seas at 6 to 10 ft are seen E of Larry, N of 21N
between 45W and 53W. Moderate to locally fresh NE trades and seas
at 5 to 7 ft are found near the Canary Islands N of 17N between
the NW African coast and 28W. Light to gentle with locally
moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder
of the basin.

For the forecast, large swells generated from Hurricane Larry,
passing well E of the area, will continue to propagate across the
SW N Atlantic. Seas of 8 ft or more can be expected mainly E of
70W tonight, spreading to 75W Thu, and potentially 80W Thu night
into Fri. Tropical Storm Mindy, currently located in the Gulf of
Mexico near 29.0N 86.3W is expected to cross the coastline of the
Florida Panhandle later tonight, and then move offshore of the
southeastern United States into the western Atlantic Ocean by
tomorrow.

$$
Torres
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