[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081814
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Sep 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Larry is centered near 27.7N 58.3W at 08/1500 UTC
or 435 nm SE of Bermuda and moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 966 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt
with gusts to 115 kt. Seas are peaking at 36 to 37 ft near and
just N of the center. Numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted near and N of the center from 27N to 30N
between 55W and 60W. Scattered moderate convection is found E and
SE of the center from 25N to 27N between 55W and 57W. Larry will
continue on a NW track through Thu morning, then gradually turning
N with the center passing E of Bermuda on Thu afternoon. Larry
should maintain near the current strength through Thu morning
before a gradual weakening trend afterward. For more information,
please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml.

A surface trough extends northeastward from the SW Gulf of Mexico
at 22N95W to the NE Gulf near 29N89W. Aided by a mid to upper-
level disturbance, scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring
up across the central and NE Gulf from 23N to the Florida
Panhandle and Mississippi coastlines. This trough is expected to
move northeastward over the NE Gulf through this afternoon.
Upper-level winds could become slightly more favorable to support
some tropical or subtropical development as the trough nears the
northern Gulf coast tonight or early Thu. Afterward, it is
expected to cross the SE United States, and some additional
development will be possible after it emerges off the SE United
States coast late this week. Regardless of development, areas of
heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Florida
panhandle and S Georgia through Thursday, with localized flooding
possible. There is a medium chance of tropical or subtropical
formation in the next 48 hours. Please, read the Tropical Weather
Outlook, at the following web address:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W from 19N southward across
the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 20W and 24W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 16N southward and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from
08N to 15N between 35W and 42W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W from 15N southward
across Guyana, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present over N Guyana and NE Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the Senegal-Guinea Bissau border
near 13N17W to 10N29W. Farther W, the ITCZ extends from 08N39W to
08N57W, just N of Guyana-Suriname border. Scattered moderate
convection is seen SW of the monsoon trough from 06N to 08N
between 30W and 33W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident near the ITCZ from 06N to 09N between 45W
and 57W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
trough of low pressure with the potential for tropical
development in the NE Gulf.

Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are
found across the central and NE Gulf, especially near stronger
thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are occurring at
the SE Gulf, while light to gentle winds are seen for the W Gulf;
seas at both areas are near 3 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough and upper-level disturbance
continue to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
over the central and E Gulf. The trough is expected to move
northeastward over the NE Gulf this afternoon. Upper-level winds
could become slightly more favorable to support some tropical or
subtropical development as the system nears the N Gulf coast
tonight or early Thu. Winds and seas could be higher near
thunderstorms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are combining with an upper-level trough
across W Cuba and the N central basin to trigger scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the central and E basin, including
Jamaica. Converging surface winds near the E end of the E Pacific
monsoon trough are causing isolated thunderstorms near the coast
of Honduras, Guatemala and W Panama. Moderate to locally fresh
trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft are evident over the central basin.
Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the
rest of the basin.

For the forecast, swells generated by Hurricane Larry will
continue to propagate across the Atlantic waters of the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through tonight. Seas will
gradually subside from E to W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade
winds will persist, pulsing to fresh to possibly locally strong
winds off Colombia mainly at night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Major Hurricane Larry SE of Bermuda.

SW of Bermuda, a surface trough near 28N68W is coupling with an
upper-level trough near 30N71W to trigger scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms N of 28N between 67W and 70W. Farther W,
converging SW to W winds are producing similar conditions from
the NW Bahamas and northward to near 30N. Refer to the Tropical
Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection
across the Atlantic Basin.

Large swell generated by Larry are creating 7 to 11-ft seas from N
of Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands to
beyond 31N. Seas at 6 to 10 ft are seen E of Larry, N of 21N
between 45W and 53W. Moderate to locally fresh NE trades and seas
at 5 to 7 ft are found near the Canary Islands N of 17N between
the NW African coast and 28W. Light to gentle with locally
moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast, large swells generated by Hurricane Larry,
passing well E of the area, will continue to propagate across the
SW N Atlantic. Seas of 8 ft or more can be expected mainly E of
70W today, spreading to 75W Thu, and potentially 80W Thu night
into Fri. Developing low pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico is
expected to move northeastward over the NE Gulf of Mexico later
today. Upper-level winds could become slightly more favorable to
support some tropical or subtropical development as the system
nears the northern Gulf coast tonight or early Thursday. The
disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United
States, and some additional development will be possible after it
emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this week.

$$

Chan
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