[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290915
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Oct 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong to gale force W to NW winds
are found north of 27N behind a strong cold front that stretches
from near Naples, Florida to the western tip of Cuba and through
the Yucatan Channel. Large seas of 8 to 18 ft cover much of the
waters north of 25N in W to NW swell. A line of strong
thunderstorms is accompanying the front. The front will push
southeast of the basin later this morning. Winds will diminish
below gale force this evening, then will diminish to gentle to
moderate Sat night. The large NW swell will spread southeast,
gradually decaying through the weekend.
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 30W from 03N to
18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described
in the next section.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near Sierra
Leone at 08N13W to 09N27W to 1012 mb low pressure near 07N32W to
05N39W. The ITCZ extends from 05N39W to 08N53W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 11N to 13N between
the coast of Africa and 25W, from 02N to 09N between 10W and 32W,
and from 07N to 09N between 47W and 50W.

The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica
and just north of Panama along 10N through 1010 mb low pressure
near 12N76W to the northern coast of Colombia near 11N74W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring over far NW
Venezuela near the border with Colombia, and across much of
northern Colombia and eastern Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
gale force winds and dangerous seas across the northern Gulf of
Mexico behind a strong cold front.

Outside of the area of strong to gale force winds, moderate to
fresh winds cover the remainder of the waters west of the front to
94W, with light to gentle winds south of 25N and west of 94W where
a ridge of high pressure is building in the wake of the front.
Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail outside of the strong to gale force
winds.

For the forecast, conditions will really improve Sun as ridging
dominates from near the Texas-Louisiana border to the Bay of
Campeche with light to gentle winds across the basin. Remnant NW
swell will still be trickling down through the end of the weekend.
The orientation of the ridge will shift early next week with more
typical NE-E flow over the eastern half of the basin and E-SE
flow over the western half of the basin at gentle to moderate
levels. Seas of 3 ft or less are expected for the start of next
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection in the SW
Caribbean.

A cold front has breached the NW Caribbean extending from near the
western tip of Cuba to northern Belize and across the Yucatan
Peninsula. A line of thunderstorms is ahead of the front north of
21N to across western Cuba, with additional activity noted in the
Gulf of Honduras to across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and
into Guatemala. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds have filtered in
behind the front, while NW swell will quickly build to greater
than 8 ft by the afternoon. Ahead of the front, light to gentle
E-SE flow is west of 80W, with moderate to locally fresh E-SE flow
east of 80W, except light and variable winds in the SW Caribbean
outside of any convection. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft across the
western Caribbean, 4 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean where winds
are the strongest, near fresh, and 3 to 5 ft in the eastern
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the cold front will move through the NW
Caribbean into the weekend, before stalling from the Windward
Passage to northern Nicaragua Sun. Moderate to fresh NW winds and
seas of up to 12 ft can be expected in the wake of the cold front,
especially in and near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a weak
ridge over the northern Caribbean Sea ahead of the front will
support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin,
with locally fresh winds possible in the Gulf of Honduras and off
the coast of Venezuela.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N79W to the Space Coast of Florida.
A broken line and clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms
with plentiful lightning are ahead of the front. Fresh to strong
SW winds are also ahead of the front from the Straits of Florida
to along the Gulf stream, continuing east of Florida to 76W and
off the coast of the Carolinas. Seas are 7 to 10 ft across this
same area. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere ahead of
the front with a ridge of high pressure extending into the area
from the central Atlantic along 22N. Seas of 7 to 10 ft in NE
swell covers the remainder of the waters north of 27N, with 4 to 7
ft south of 27N and east of the Bahamas.

Another cold front is in the tropical Atlantic, from 31N55W to
25N67W. A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms is noted
within 75 nm southeast of the front along with fresh to strong SW
winds. Moderate to fresh winds follow the front to 65W. 1020 mb
high pressure is located west of the Canary Islands near 29N21W
with a ridge extending through 24N50W to along 22N near 65W.
Moderate to fresh trades are noted from 11N to 23N east of 35W to
the coast of Africa, with mainly light to gentle winds across the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in
mixed swell prevail across the waters east of 65W, except 8 to 12
ft in northerly swell north of 27N and west of 45W.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. A volcanic ash
cloud is slowly drifting southwest. High volcanic ash
concentration remains in the vicinity of the volcano. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes /la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will gradually reach
a Bermuda to Windward Passage line over the weekend. Fresh to
strong winds are expected on both sides of the front through Sat,
mainly north of 26N. Seas of 8 ft or greater will fill across the
northern waters today, lingering through Sun before decaying. The
front will weaken as it stretches from 30N65W to the Turks and
Caicos Islands early Mon with gentle to moderate NE flow then
prevailing through Tue night.

$$
Lewitsky
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