[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Oct 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong to gale W to NW winds behind
a strong cold front over central Florida are found N of 25N, from
the Texas coast eastward to near the Florida Big Bend area. Seas
are peaking from 24 to 28 ft over the NW Gulf, and from 18 to 23
ft over the N central and NE Gulf. These dangerous marine
conditions will begin to gradually diminish from W to E Fri
evening into Sat morning. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is W of the Cabo Verde Islands along
29W from 19N southward, and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 04N to 12N between 27W and
31W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the African coast near the Guinea-
Bissau/Guinea border at 10N15W and meanders west-southwestward
through a 1012 mb low pressure near 09N33W to 05N39W. Then the
ITCZ continues westward from 05N39W to N of French Guiana near
07N52W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen S of the
monsoon trough from 03N to 11N between the Sierra Leone-Liberia
coast and 27W. Scattered moderate convection is evident N of the
monsoon trough from 12N to 16N between the Senegal coast and 27W.
Scattered showers are occurring S and SW of the low from 03N to
05N between 31W and 39W, and near the ITCZ from 07N to 10N between
47W and 51W.

Convergent winds near the eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon
trough are generating numerous heavy showers and scattered
thunderstorms across Costa Rica, Panama, NW Colombia and adjacent
Caribbean waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted near the Colombia-Venezuela border and nearby waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
gale winds and dangerous seas across the N Gulf.

A strong cold front extends southwestward from central Florida
across the SE Gulf and Yucatan Peninsula to near Villahermosa, S
Mexico. A line of scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are
found near and up to 130 nm SE of the front. This line stretches
from S Florida across the Yucatan Channel and Peninsular to
Guatemala and SE Mexico. Moderate to fresh with locally strong S
to SW winds and seas up to 7 ft are possible in these conditions.
Fresh to strong NW to N winds with seas of 10 to 15 ft are present
over the central and E central Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW to NE
winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft prevail across the S central and SW
Gulf.

For the Forecast, the cold front will move E through the
remainder of the Gulf tonight, accompanied by a band of strong
thunderstorms. Fresh to strong southerly winds will continue ahead
of the front. Strong to gale force W to NW winds and seas over 12
ft are expected over N Gulf waters through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection in the
Caribbean Basin. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending west-
southwestward from the central Atlantic across the Greater
Antilles to the NW Caribbean sea is providing E to SE trades
across the entire basin. Moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
found over the S central basin, while gentle trades and seas at 3
to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to support
mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin, with
locally fresh winds possible in the Gulf of Honduras and off the
coast of Venezuela. A cold front will move through the Yucatan
Channel tonight. This front will move through the NW Caribbean
into the weekend, before stalling from the Windward Passage to
N Nicaragua Sun. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas up to 12 ft
are expected in the wake of the cold front, especially in and
near the Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the Georgia coast into N
Florida. A warm front stretches southeastward from S Carolina
coast to near the SE Bahamas, then continues eastward as a
dissipating stationary front to 25N67W before turning
northeastward as another cold front to beyond 31N at 56W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near the
warm front from the NW Bahamas and northward to beyond 31N.
Similar conditions are also seen near and up to 130 nm SE of the
cold front. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Latest satellite scatterometer and wave model data reveal surging
fresh to strong SSW to S winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft N of 25N
between 75W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Moderate to fresh with
locally strong SW to W winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are also
indicated near the cold front, N of 26N between 47W and 67W.
Otherwise N of 21N, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
are found between the NW African coast and central Bahamas.
Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are noted
near the Cabo Verde Islands from 12N to 21N between the
Mauritania-Senegal coast and 36W. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh SSW to W monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident S
of 12N between central African coast and 34W. Mainly gentle ENE
trades and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash cloud is
slowly drifting SW. High volcanic ash concentration remains in
the vicinity of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should
monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash
Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned cold front E of the
central Bahamas will move farther E and gradually dissipate into
the weekend. The cold front currently over Georgia and Florida will
move off the SE U.S. coast tonight and across the Bahamas Fri.
It will then reach Bermuda to the N and the Windward Passage to
the S during the weekend before stalling. Strong winds and seas
in excess of 8 ft are expected to develop on both sides of the
front this evening into Sun, mainly N of 26N.

$$

Chan
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