[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 48W, south of 16N and it is
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave
axis south of 12N.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 63W, south of 16N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted near Trinidad and Tobago,
and over parts of eastern Venezuela and Guyana.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 74W, south of 20N, extending
from Hispaniola to Colombia, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is
enhancing some scattered moderate isolated strong convection over
Colombia and W Venezuela, including Lake Maracaibo.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 82W, south of 20N, extending
from Isla de Juventud in southern Cuba to Panama, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of GUinea-Bissau to
05N29W. The ITCZ continues from 05N29W to 00N37W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N
between 21W to 28W and E of 21W to the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed across the
southern portion of the Gulf of Mexico including south Texas,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Abundant low level moisture
combined with a diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective
activity. The rest of the Gulf, especially N of 25N, is under a
drier airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front drapes across the northern Gulf
states. A weak ridge dominates the basin along the Florida
Panhandle producing mainly gentle to moderate winds. Seas range
between 2-4 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary across the northern Gulf
of Mexico will gradually move southward across the eastern Gulf
today. The front is expected to stall Sat afternoon and linger
across the southern Gulf before dissipating Sun night. Moderate to
fresh winds are expected across the NW Gulf on Sat into Sun.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean.
Please, the Tropical Waves section for details.

The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of
moderate to locally fresh trades across the east and central
Caribbean, with mainly gentle to moderate winds over the NW
Caribbean and S of 12N. Seas are generally 3-6 ft S of 18N E of
80W, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. Moderate to fresh winds are E of the
Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean, with seas of 8 to 10 ft
based on nearby observations. A diffluent pattern aloft will
continue to support the development of showers and thunderstorms
over Cuba, Jamaica, northern Central America, and the Yucatan
Peninsula today. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
is noted elsewhere producing isolated to scattered showers.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh
to locally strong trades E of the Windward Islands and across the
eastern Caribbean through the early next week, with winds reaching
locally strong in the Venezuela basin through Sun. Gentle to
moderate tradewinds are expect to prevail across the basin for the
latter part of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large area of showers and thunderstorms is present over the
SW N Atlantic, including the Bahamas and SE Florida. A surface
trough is analyzed from 26N72W to the SE Bahamas. Upper diffluence
is helping induce this convective activity W of 60W. The most
recent scatterometer data show fresh winds in association with the
convection. The rest of the Atlantic forecast waters are under
the influence of a ridge with a 1030b high pressure located N of
area near 38N48W and another 1025 mb high pressure situated S of
the Azores near 36N21W. A stationary front is noted just N of the
Canary Islands.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Continues ash
emission is noted with small column height. Medium to high
volcanic ash concentration in the vicinity of the volcano.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-
France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast, A trough off the southeast Florida coast will
support convection across the region through today. A cold
front along the Florida Panhandle will move off the SE U.S.
coast today and push southward towards South Florida and stall
through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh winds will develop north
of the boundary on Sun off the Florida coast. Expect showers and
thunderstorms along this boundary through the weekend.

$$
Torres/MT
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