[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230857
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 400 nm on either
side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W, from 17N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 250 nm to the
east of the tropical wave, from 07N to 13N, and within 60 nm to
the west of the tropical wave from 09N to 13N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W, from 21N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm to the west of the
tropical wave from 09N to 13N, from parts of NW Venezuela, to
Colombia, to the coastal waters of Colombia.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W, from 21N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate is within 260 nm to the east of the
tropical wave from 12N to 16N. Scattered to numerous strong is
in the NW coastal sections of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of NW
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, near its border with Senegal, to
10N20W 06N29W. The ITCZ continues from 06N29W, toward the
Equator along 38W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is
within 150 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 14W and
17W, and within 120 nm on either side of the monsoon trough
between 24W and 29W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
05N to 07N between 12W and 14W, and from 05N to 06N between 17W
and 19W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N
southward from 40W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 27N79W,
across Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, toward 21N97W
at the coast of Mexico.

Recent scatterometer winds show that a surface trough curves
from 24N94W to 21N95W to 18N94W at the northern coast of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong extends from NW Guatemala to the
western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, from 16N to 21N
between 89W and 93W.

Moderate to fresh winds cover much of the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle
to moderate winds cover the area that is from 26N northward from
90W eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from
27N southward, and at 2 feet or less elsewhere.

A frontal boundary stretched across the northern Gulf of Mexico
will press southward across the eastern Gulf through Sat. The
front is expected to stall Sat afternoon and linger across the
southern Gulf before dissipating Sun night. Moderate to fresh
winds are expected across the NW Gulf on Sat into Sun. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation
center is near NE Nicaragua/E Honduras. Anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Caribbean Sea from 65W westward. A trough enters the
easternmost part of the Caribbean Sea from the Atlantic Ocean.
The GFS model for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows that the
Caribbean Sea is on the southern side of an Atlantic Ocean
ridge. Expect E to SE wind flow at 500 mb and at 700 mb.

Three tropical waves are the main features that are in the area.
Most of the precipitation that is in the Caribbean Sea is
related to the tropical waves. Please, refer to the Tropical
Waves section for more details.

Fresh to strong NE-to-E winds are from 19N southward between 64W
and 73W. Moderate to fresh NE-to-E winds are from 12N to 18N
between 75W and 83W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. The
sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet from 70W eastward, and
from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to locally strong
trades E of the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean
through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over
the south central Caribbean with winds reaching locally strong
in the Venezuela basin through Sun. Winds are expected to become
moderate to fresh across the central Caribbean from Mon through
Wed with gentle to moderate trade winds prevailing elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that
is near 38N46W, to 33N67W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 42W and 67W.

A surface trough is along 30N70W 23N74W. Precipitation: numerous
strong is from 30N to 33N between 64W and 68W, and from Cuba to
25N in the Bahamas between 73W and 77W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere to the northwest of the
line that runs from 31N62W to 24N67W to 20N70W.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows that a trough is along 23N53W, to
13N65W in the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 440 nm to the southeast of the upper
level trough.

A dissipating stationary front passes through Morocco near
31N06W, to the Canary Islands. Precipitation: broken to overcast
low level and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers are
from 24N northward from 30W eastward.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 16N southward between 50W and
60W, between the 47W/48W tropical wave and the 62W tropical
wave. Light to gentle winds are within 400 nm on either side of
the monsoon trough/the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh winds are
elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 8
feet to 9 feet from 10N northward between 30W and 50W, and from
25N southward between 50W and 60W. Expect sea heights that range
from 4 feet to 6 feet from 10N southward from 40W eastward. The
sea heights are 6 feet elsewhere from 50W westward.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A trough off the southeast Florida coast will support convection
across the region through Sat. A cold front will move off the SE
U.S. coast tonight. The front will push southward toward South
Florida on Sat and stall through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh
winds will develop north of the boundary on Sun off the Florida
coast. Expect showers and thunderstorms along this boundary
through the weekend.


$$
Torres/MT
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