[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191627
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W from 16N southward,
moving westward around 15 kt. Little signature of this wave is
noted at the surface. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 02N-08N between 27W-40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 52W from 17N southward,
moving westward around 15 kt. Little signature of this wave is
noted at the surface. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N-10N between 43W-50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W from 19N southward,
moving westward around 10 kt. The wave axis is noted from the 12
UTC Barbados and Trinidad 700 mb rawindsonde winds. No
significant deep convection is noted in association with this
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Senegal near
13N17W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 05N30W. It
then resumes near 04N33W to 07N49W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 02N-08N between 27W-40W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-10N between 43W-
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high is centered over North Carolina/Virginia.
Equatorward of the high, E winds are moderate to fresh east of
90W and gentle or weaker west of 90W. Isolated moderate
convection is noted in the SW Gulf south of 21N as well as from
24N-28N between 85W-91W. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range across the
E Gulf and 1-3 ft over the W Gulf.

For the forecast, the weakening stationary front across the
Straits of Florida will slowly dissipate through Wed. Winds
across the Gulf will gradually veer to the E today as high pres
to the N slides eastward. Weak high pres will dominate the Gulf
for the remainder of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern exists across the Caribbean waters with
gentle to moderate trades prevailing.  Seas are 2-4 ft.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over
the Caribbean from 13N-21N west of 80W.

For the forecast, high pressure building N of the area will
bring a return to moderate trade winds to the Caribbean today.
Winds will further increase to moderate to fresh winds Wed
through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to 24N73W, then becomes a
dissipating stationary front to N Cuba. NE winds are moderate to
fresh north of the frontal boundary. Scattered showers are
occurring within 60 NM of the front. Northeast of the Lesser
Antilles, a trough extends from 27N49W to 18N60W. Winds are
moderate or weaker in the vicinity of the trough. Scattered
showers are occurring within 60 NM of the trough. Farther east,
a cold front enters the discussion waters from 31N26W to 26N30W,
then becomes a trough extending to a weak 1018 mb low at 27N40W,
then continuing as a trough to 25N45W. Winds in the vicinity of
the front/trough are gentle. Scattered showers are occurring
within 60 NM of the front/trough. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ,
the NE to E trades are moderate to fresh. Seas over these waters
are mainly in the 4-6 ft range.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash
emission on-going. Marine and aviation interests should monitor
this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory
issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-
palma/.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will become
stationary from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida late Wed
before dissipating Thu night. High pres will shift ESE across
the W Atlantic along 31N-32N through Thu, producing moderate to
fresh winds immediately north of the front. Expect fresh to
locally strong trades E of the Windward Islands Wed night
through Sat night.

$$
Landsea
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net