[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Oct 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 30N from 02N to 16N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 04N to 07N between 28W and 32W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W from 02N to to 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N to 11N between 45W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W south of 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
10N to 15N between 55W and 60W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W south of 16N, moving
westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is
near the northern part of the wave from 12N to 19N between 80W and
85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Senegal near
15N17W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 06N28W. It
then resumes near 06N31W to 07N43W to 06N47W. In addition to the
convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section above,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N
to 08N between 24W and 28W, and from 04N to 07N between 32W and
45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to near
22N91W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the Gulf
waters, except for the NW Gulf where light to gentle winds are
noted. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range across much of the Gulf,
except 1-3 ft over the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front from the Straits of
Florida to 22N91W will slowly dissipate through Wed. Winds across
the Gulf will gradually veer to the E today as high pres to the N
slides eastward. Weak high pres will dominate the Gulf for the
remainder of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the central and eastern
Caribbean south of 13N as well as in the lee of Cuba. Light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range
across the Caribbean waters, reaching near 4 ft in the Yucatan
channel.

For the forecast, high pressure building N of the area will bring
a return to moderate trade winds to the Caribbean today. Winds
will further increase to moderate to fresh winds Wed through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N56W to 24N72W, then becomes
stationary to the straits of Florida. Farther east, a cold front
enters the discussion waters from 31N25W to 26N30W, then becomes
stationary to near 25N35W with a trough continuing westward to
near 20N55W. High pressure of 1018 mb is centered south of the
trough near 23N38W. Over the tropical waters south of 20N, trade-
winds are moderate to fresh with seas in the 4-6 ft range. Over
the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N, gentle to
moderate winds prevail. Seas over these waters are mainly in the
3-5 ft range.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. An ash
emission is ongoing. Light to moderate volcanic ash is expected
in the area east of the volcano, while high ash concentrations are
in the vicinity of the volcano. Lower volcanic ash cloud is
drifting to the southwest. Marine and aviation interests should
monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash
Advisory issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes
/la- palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the frontal boundary that extends
from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida will become stationary from
near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida late Wed before dissipating
Thu night. High pres will shift ESE across the W Atlc along 31N-
32N through Thu, producing moderate to fresh winds immediately
north of the front.

$$
AL
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