[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172305
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near
Naples, Florida to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Gale-force winds
are active off Veracruz behind the front, with seas to 16 ft in
the area of strongest winds off Veracruz. Winds and seas will
decrease this evening, with winds diminishing below gale force.
Marine conditions will continue to improve through early this
week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on both warnings.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W south of 17N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to
08N between 18W and 25W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W/42W south of 20N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 07N to 09N between 37W and 44W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W south of 20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 18N to 20N betwen 50W and 53W, associated with a sharp
upper trough north of the tropical wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W south of 20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N17W to
07N22W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 07N22W to 06N30W to
09N40W, and from 08N43W to 05N51W. No significant convection is
observed other that what was already mentioned in the Tropical
Waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale Warning
off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from near Naples, Florida to near
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Aside from the gale-force winds off the
coast of Veracruz, Mexico, fresh to strong winds prevail west of
the front. Seas west of the front are in the 8-12 ft range south
of 25N, peaking to 16 ft off Veracruz. Seas are 5-8 ft elsewhere
west of the front, and 2-4 ft east of the front. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 30 nm of the front between
85W and 90W, and along the coast of Mexico between 92W and 94W.

For the forecast, winds across the Gulf will gradually veer to
the E late Mon through Tue as the front becomes aligned from just
offshore of the N Yucatan Peninsula through the Straits of Florida
and dissipates.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters.
Scattered showers are noted in the western Caribbean and along
the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate winds,
and seas of 2-4 ft, are noted over the central and eastern
Caribbean waters south of 15N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of
1-3 ft prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean
basin will maintain tranquil marine conditions through early Mon.
A cold front drifting over the southern Gulf of Mexico will stall
north of the area from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida.
High pressure building in the wake of the front will bring a
return to moderate trade winds to the Caribbean Mon night through
Tue and then moderate to fresh winds late Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the Atlantic waters from 31N72W to
West Palm Beach, Florida. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6 to
8 ft. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N32W to 23N47W,
with a trough continuing to near 22N70W. A sharp upper trough just
to the northwest of these features is supporting scattered
moderate convection is observed from 18N to 20N betwen 50W and 53W.
Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft are also noted within
90 nm east of the front, north of 28N. Over the tropical waters
south of 20N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail.
N of 20N and east of 50W, gentle to moderate winds and seas of
5-8 ft prevail. Elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical waters
north of 20N and west of 50W, light to gentle winds, and seas of
3-5 ft, prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Moderate to
high ash concentrations are observed west of La Palma moving
north, along with light to moderate concentrations east of La
Palma, Tenerife, and Gran Canaria. Marine and aviation interests
should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash
Advisory issued by Meteo- France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes
/la- palma/

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will continue moving
southeastward across most of Florida tonight, reaching from near
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Mon morning. Expect fresh to
strong N to NE winds behind the front through Mon morning. High
pressure will shift ESE across the western Atlantic along 31N-32N
Tue through Wed while the front stalls from near 25N65W to the
Straits of Florida.

$$
Christensen
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