[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172242
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near
Naples, Florida to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Gale-force winds
are active off Veracruz behind the front, with seas to 16 ft in
the area of strongest winds off Veracruz. Winds and seas will
decrease this evening, with winds diminishing below gale force.
Marine conditions will continue to improve through early this
week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on both warnings.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W south of 17N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to
08N between 18W and 25W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W/42W south of 20N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 07N to 09N between 37W and 44W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W south of 20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 18N to 20N betwen 50W
and 53W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W south of 20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. No signficant convection is observed near this wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N17W to
07N22W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 07N22W to 06N30W to
09N40W, and from 08N43W to 05N51W. No significant convection is
observed other that what was already mentioned in the Tropical
Waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale Warning
off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from near Naples, Florida to near
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Aside from the gale-force winds off the
coast of Veracruz, Mexico, fresh to strong winds prevail west of
the front. Seas west of the front are in the 8-12 ft range south
of 25N, peaking to 16 ft off Veracruz. Seas are 5-8 ft elsewhere
west of the front, and 2-4 ft east of the front. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 30 nm of the front between
85W and 90W, and along the coast of Mexico between 92W and 94W.

For the forecast, winds across the Gulf will gradually veer to
the E late Mon through Tue as the front becomes aligned from just
offshore of the N Yucatan Peninsula through the Straits of Florida
and dissipates.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Wave Section for more information.

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters.
Scattered showers are noted in the western Caribbean and along
the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate winds,
and seas of 2-4 ft, are noted over the central and eastern
Caribbean waters south of 14N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of
1-3 ft prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean
basin will lead to tranquil marine conditions through early Mon.
A cold front has entered the NW Atlc overnight and will move SE
through early Wed before stalling from near 25N65W to the Straits
of Florida. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
bring a return to moderate trade winds to the Caribbean Mon night
through Tue and then moderate to fresh winds late Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the Atlantic waters from 31N74W to
central Florida. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are
noted west of the front with isolated showers along the boundary.
Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N37W to 23N48W, with a
trough continuing to north of Hispaniola, near 21N68W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 180 nm east of the front
and north of 19N. A surface trough is noted behind the front from
31N40W to 29N47W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft are
also noted east and southeast of the front. Over the tropical
waters south of 20N, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft,
prevail. N of 20N and east of 50W, gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 5-8 ft prevail. Elsewhere over the tropical and
subtropical waters north of 20N and west of 50W, light to gentle
winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail.

Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low ash
concentrations is moving NW. Marine and aviation interests
should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic
Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes /la-palma/

For the forecast west of 65W, a weak pressure pattern prevails
across the W Atlc to the SW of Bermuda. A cold front across the
NW waters to central Florida will continue moving southeastward
across most of FL tonight, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by Mon morning. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds
behind the front through Mon morning. High pres will shift ESE
across the W Atlc along 31N-32N Tue through Wed while the front
stalls from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida.

$$
Christensen
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