[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent,
reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W. The ITCZ extends from 07N13W to 04N29W to 01N45W.
Scattered moderate convection from 03N to 10N and between 21W to
30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong 1030 mb high pressure system anchored over the Appalachian
Mountains extends into the Gulf of Mexico. Dry continental airmass
continues to dominate the region and no significant convection is
observed. Recent scatterometer satellite data and surface observations
indicate that moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds are found
across the basin, with the strongest winds occurring in the NW and
E Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Seas of 6-9 ft are present
in the SE Gulf, with the highest seas occurring in the Florida
Straits and the entrance of the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, fresh S winds are expected in the NW Gulf and
fresh E winds in the Florida Straits will prevail ahead of a cold
front that will move off the Texas coast Thu. By Fri evening, the
front will reach a Fort Myers, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico line.
Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front over the western
Gulf Thu night into Fri night with near- gale force winds possible
in the nearshore waters between Tampico and Brownsville. Winds will
become light to gentle on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the open Atlantic to the north-central
Caribbean Sea, where it becomes a stationary front that stretches
to the Nicaraguan coast. A few showers are noticed near the frontal
boundary, but no deep convection is associated with this feature.
The latest satellite-derived wind data shows fresh to locally strong
NE winds behind the frontal boundary. Seas of 3-6 ft are also found
behind the front.

Elsewhere, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affect the
Southern Caribbean Sea from Colombia and NW Venezuela. This is
likely associated with the eastern extension of the E Pacific
monsoon trough that is enhancing the development of convection in
the region. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent
ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the cold front from Dominican Republic to
Nicaragua has stalled this afternoon. The front will gradually
dissipate through the remainder of the week. Fresh NE winds will
prevail behind this front, with some locally strong winds possible
S of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through
Fri and bring a potential for heavy rain. Moderate northerly swell
will affect the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic
waters Thu into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An cold front extends from a strong extratropical cyclone near
Nova Scotia to Hispaniola, entering the tropical Atlantic near
30N55W. A few showers are seen near the frontal boundary, N of
22N to 31N, however, the strongest convection is found north of
our area. Fresh to strong northerly winds are occurring behind
the cold front, with the strongest winds prevailing N of 28N and
E of 71W. Northerly swell behind the cold front result in a large
area of 8-16 ft seas, with 12 ft or higher seas prevailing N of
27N and between 60W to 71W.

Farther east, a surface trough extending from 29N28W to 17N37W
and divergence aloft results in scattered showers and thunderstorms
N of 21N and between 21W and 29W. Scatterometer satellite data
depict fresh to strong southerly winds N of 21N and between 23W
and 30W. However, stronger winds can be found associated with the
heaviest thunderstorms. Seas of 6-9 ft are present N of 18N and
between 25W and 55W. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front stretches from 31N55W to
Dominican Republic. The northern portion of this front will move
east of the area, while the southern part will stall along 19N
into the weekend. Fresh NE winds can be expected behind the
front, with some strong winds N of 28N through Thu. In the wake
of the front, high pressure will build in off the coast of
Georgia and northern Florida on Thu. The next cold front will
push off the NE Florida coast Thu night and bring another round
of strong winds into Sat N of 29N.

$$

Torres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net