[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent,
reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 08N15W. The ITCZ extends from 08N15W to 06N28W to
03N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 03N
to 09N and between 21W to 30W. Some showers are also noticed near
the ITCZ and monsoon trough E of 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong 1031 mb high pressure system anchored over the
Appalachian Mountains extends into the Gulf of Mexico. Dry
continental air continues to dominate the region and no
significant convection is observed. Recent scatterometer satellite
data and surface observations indicate that moderate to locally
fresh anticyclonic winds are found across the basin, with the
strongest winds occurring in the NW and E Gulf, including the
Florida Straits. Seas of 6-9 ft are present in the SE Gulf, with
the highest seas occurring in the Florida Straits and the entrance
of the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue shifting east,
allowing for fresh southerly winds to develop in the NW Gulf and
easterly winds in the Florida Straits later today and into
tonight. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast Thu,
and reach from Tampa Bay, FL to Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening.
Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front over the
western Gulf Thu night into Fri night with near- gale force winds
possible in the nearshore waters between Tampico and Brownsville.
Winds will become light to gentle on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the open Atlantic to the north-central
Caribbean Sea, where it becomes a stationary front that stretches
to the Nicaraguan coast. A few showers are noticed near the
frontal boundary, but no deep convection is associated with this
feature. The latest satellite-derived wind data show fresh to
locally strong NE winds behind the frontal boundary. Seas of 3-6
ft are also found behind the front.

Elsewhere, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affect the
SW Caribbean Sea and the coasts of Colombia and NW Venezuela. This
is likely associated with the eastern extension of the E Pacific
monsoon trough that is enhancing the development of convection in
the region. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft are
prevalent ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will stall from the
Mona Passage to Nicaragua tonight, then gradually dissipate into
the weekend. Fresh NE winds will occur behind the front, with
strong winds possible S of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage
this evening through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico today through Fri and
bring a potential for heavy rain. Moderate northerly swell will
affect the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic
waters Thu into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An cold front extends from a strong extratropical cyclone near
Nova Scotia to Hispaniola, entering the tropical Atlantic near
31N58W. A few showers are seen near the frontal boundary, however,
the strongest convection is found north of our area. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are occurring behind the cold front, with
the strongest winds prevailing N of 28N and E of 71W. Northerly
swell behind the cold front result in a large area of 8-16 ft
seas, with 12 ft or higher seas prevailing N of 27N and between
60W to 71W.

Farther east, a surface trough extending from 31N26W to 18N37W
and divergence aloft results in scattered showers and
thunderstorms N of 21N and between 21W and 29W. Recent
scatterometer satellite data depict fresh to strong southerly
winds N of 21N and between 23W and 30W. However, stronger winds
can be found associated with the heaviest thunderstorms. Seas of
6-9 ft are present N of 18N and between 25W and 55W. Elsewhere,
fairly tranquil weather conditions, moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 4-7 ft prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast W of 55W, the previously-mentioned front will
move east in Fri, then stall along 19N and gradually dissipate
over the weekend. Fresh NE winds can be expected behind the front,
with some strong winds N of 28N into Thu. In the wake of the
front, high pressure will build in off the coast of Georgia and
northern Florida on Thu. The next cold front will push off the NE
Florida coast Fri and bring another round of strong winds through
Fri night N of 29N.

$$
DELGADO
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