[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a powerful non-tropical
low pressure system located more than 400 miles northeast of
Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
hurricane-force winds are occurring south of the center. However,
the low is still interacting with a frontal boundary, and the
system has not yet acquired enough tropical cyclone characteristics
to be considered a subtropical storm. Additional development is
still possible during the next day or two, and a subtropical storm
could form during this time. Thereafter, the system is forecast
to move over colder water and be absorbed by a larger non-tropical
low. This system has a medium chance of development in the next 48
hours. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service which can
be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC,
and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W, to 08N16W, and 07N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N17W, to 05N20W, 04N30W, 04N35W, and 02N42W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 135 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between
14W and 25W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 11N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface ridge extends from
a 1023 mb east central Alabama high pressure center, into the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate anticyclonic winds cover the Gulf of Mexico. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet.

A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Wed
promoting gentle to moderate NE to E winds. Southerly return
flow will set up across the NW Gulf on Wed night ahead of the
next cold front forecast to enter the region on Thu. The front
will remain nearly stationary over the northern Gulf on Fri.
Reinforcing high pressure will push the front across the Gulf on
Sat, reaching the SE part of the basin by Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the eastern
Pacific Ocean, just off the coast of El Salvador. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 10N to NW Cuba
between 80W and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough cuts across Hispaniola. A
shear axis curves southwestward, from Jamaica to the coastal
waters of western Panama. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong
precipitation are between 73W and 78W.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from northern Colombia at
74W beyond parts of western Panama.  Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong in individual clusters
covers the water areas and land areas from 14N between 77W and
Costa Rica.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 16N southward between 70W and
78W; and from 17N northward to Cuba between 77W and 83W. Gentle
to moderate winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 4
feet to 6 feet from 80W westward. The sea heights range from 2
feet to 4 feet from 70W eastward, and from 80W westward. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet between 70W and 80W.

A shearline extends from Jamaica to the SW Caribbean Sea near
10N81W. Fresh to strong northerly winds will persist between the
shearline and the coast of Nicaragua through early Wed morning.
As high pressure builds north of the Caribbean Sea, expect fresh
to locally strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean
Sea, and in the Gulf of Venezuela beginning tonight. These winds
will likely persist through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N59W, to 23N70W, to 22N75W in the
waters that are between the Bahamas and Cuba. A surface trough
is within 90 nm to 180 nm to the E and ESE of the cold front.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 180 nm to 360 nm
to the ESE of the cold front and surface trough.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the waters
that are from 10N northward between 20W and 40W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong precipitation are from 10N northward from 40W
eastward.

A surface trough extends from 06N to 10N between 38W and 39W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 08N to 10N between 37W
and 40W.

A surface ridge passes through 31N25W to 24N31W to 22N59W. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
13N northward from 59W eastward.

Strong winds and faster are from 29N northward between 54W and
67W. Fresh winds are from 27N northward between 50W and 72W,
with the cold front and surface trough combination. Fresh to
strong NE winds are within 120 nm on either side of the line
that runs from 29N12W to 23N18W; within 300 nm on either side of
20N20W 10N33W; within 120 nm on either side of 12N42W 08N50W;
and from Cuba and Hispaniola to 29N from 71W westward. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 8 feet
to 13 feet from the cold front northward between the cold front
and 75W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere,
to the east of the cold front and surface trough combination.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

The cold front currently near 31N58W will continue moving E
tonight into Thu. Large seas follow the front covering the
waters N of 21N. The front will remain in the SE waters while
gradually weakening. These seas will subside gradually during
the next couple of days. The next cold front will move off NE
Florida on Fri, then stall. Reinforcing high pressure will push
the front across the region on Sat.

$$
MT/Torres
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