[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Nov 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near
07N11W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 03N41W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between
12W and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1026 mb surface high pressure centered over
eastern Mississippi. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the
northern Gulf with gentle to moderate winds over the southern
Gulf. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the SE Gulf, and 1-3 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through Wed promoting gentle to moderate NE to E winds.
Southerly return flow will set up across the NW Gulf on Wed night
ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the region on
Thu. The front will remain nearly stationary over the northern
Gulf on Fri. Reinforcing high pressure will push the front across
the Gulf on Sat, reaching the SE part of the basin by Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the north coast of Hispaniola to
central Jamaica and becomes a shear line extending to Costa Rica.
Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the shear
line. Fresh to strong winds are off the coast of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua to the west of the shear line. Moderate to fresh winds
are noted off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range off the coast of
Colombia, and 3-5 ft elsewhere over the central and western
Caribbean. Over the eastern Caribbean, seas are in the 1-3 ft
range.

For the forecast, the shearline from Jamaica to the SW Caribbean
will support fresh to strong northerly winds between the
shearline and the coast of Nicaragua through tonight. As high
builds north of the Caribbean Sea, expect fresh to locally strong
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, and in the Gulf
of Venezuela beginning tonight. These winds will likely persist
through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to northern Hispaniola. A second
front extends from 31N68W to the central Bahamas. Farther east,
high pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 29N43W. east of that, a
surface trough extends from 31N31W to 12N34W. Fresh to strong
winds are noted within 60 nm east of the first front N of 28N, N
of 28N between the fronts, and within 120 nm west of the second
front north of 28N. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of
the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere
across the discussion waters. Seas of 8-12 ft are noted north of
26N west of 58W. Seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere over the open
waters of the discussion area.

For the forecast W of 65W, a cold front extends from 31N59W to
Hispaniola where it becomes stationary. Large seas follow the
front covering the waters N of 22N. These seas will gradually
subside from E to W over the next couple of days. The front will
remain over the SE waters while gradually weakening. The next
cold front will move off NE Florida on Fri, then stall.
Reinforcing high pressure will push the front across the region
on Sat.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Medium ash concentration is in the western vicinity of the
volcano, while low concentration is further away. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France
at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
AL
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