[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080514
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

West Atlantic Gale Warning: A storm force low is centered north
of the area near 32.5N 73W. A recent ASCAT pass from Sunday
evening shows that gale force W to NW winds up to 35 kt are
occurring from 30N-31N between 72W-76W. Seas in this area are
likely 15 to 20 ft. Buoy 41002 just north of the area near 31.8N
75W recently recorded seas of 23 ft at 0400 UTC. As the low
moves toward the E or ENE at a forward speed of 10-15 kt over
the next couple of days, winds and seas should begin to subside
starting later this morning, but frequent gusts to gale force
along with seas of 12 to 15 ft will persist through this
afternoon north of 29N between 70W-75W. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends S from the coast of Senegal near
13N17W to 10N17W. The ITCZ continues from 10N17W to 07N19W to
04N43W. The ITCZ resumes W of a sfc trough from 04N46W to
04N51W. A surface trough is analyzed from 03N45W to 09N41W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N-10N
between 20W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is near the
northeastern end of the surface trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico, with a
1024 mb surface high pressure centered over southwestern
Mississippi. A recent ASCAT wind data pass reveals gentle E
winds over the NW Gulf north of 23N and west of 90W. Moderate to
locally fresh N winds are evident over the eastern Gulf. A small
surface trough is present west of the Yucatan Peninsula. ASCAT
shows moderate to fresh NE winds on the NE side of the trough,
off the NW coast of Yucatan. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the NW Gulf
and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through
midweek. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the
eastern Gulf will continue through tonight. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through midweek. Southerly
flow returns Wed, increasing winds to moderate to fresh in the
NW Gulf. This is ahead of the next cold front that will move
into the region by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the eastern tip of Cuba to the western
tip of Jamaica. A stationary front continues from the western
tip of Jamaica to the coast of central Nicaragua near 13N85.5W.
Isolated moderate tstorms are along the front. A recent ASCAT
pass shows fresh N winds behind the front covering the NW
Caribbean, except for locally strong N winds off the coast of
Honduras, from 15N to 18.5N between 81W-86W. Seas of 6 to 7 ft
are occurring in the strong wind area, with 3 to 6 ft seas
elsewhere behind the front. Fresh to locally strong trades are
also seen off the coast of NE Colombia and NW Venezuela, where
seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate trades are noted
elsewhere with 2 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow
the front in the western Caribbean during the next day or two.
This front is forecast to drift eastward through Tue while
dissipating. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected within
about 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua in the wake of the front,
Mon through Tue. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail
across the east and central Caribbean through mid-week, with the
exception of moderate to fresh trade winds near the
coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for more information on
the Gale Warning north of 30N between 70W-76W.

A cold front extends from 31N68W to 25N70W to the eastern tip of
Cuba. Isolated moderate showers and tstorms are found within 120
nm ahead of the front. A second/reinforcing front has formed
from 31N72W to 28N74W to Grand Bahama Island. Gale force W to NW
winds are north of 30N and west of the reinforcing front to 76W.
Strong NW to N winds are elsewhere to the NW of the reinforcing
front, extending to the coast of Florida. Strong to near-gale
force SW winds are within 90 nm east of the reinforcing front,
north of 28N. Fresh S to SW winds are within 120 nm east of the
leading front, north of 23N. Seas in excess of 8 ft are
occurring north of 25N and west of 65W, with a maximum of 20 ft
near 31N75W.

Farther E, an upper-level low near 24N36W is inducing scattered
moderate tstorms from 19N-27N between 30W-38W. A 1021 mb surface
high pressure near 31N43W sits along a ridge that extends
southwestward to the Dominican Republic. Gentle winds are near
the ridge. Moderate trade winds prevail in the tropical
latitudes, south of the ridge. Seas are 3 to 5 ft from 15N-30N
between 35W-60W, 5 to 7 ft from 05N-15N between 40W-60W, and 6
to 8 ft north of 15N and east of 30W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the two cold fronts will continue
progressing eastward as the low pressure north of the area moves
E to ENE at 10-15 kt over the next couple days. Winds and seas
west of 75W will begin to diminish late today. In the wake of
this system, high pressure will build over the Carolinas Wed,
leading to moderate to fresh trade winds over the W Atlantic.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Hagen
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