[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Nov 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

West Atlantic Gale Warning: As of 07/2100 UTC a 993 mb low
pressure is centered near 32N75W over the N Carolina SE offshore
waters. Strong to gale-force winds are found N of 27N W of the low
towards the coastal waters. Seas are peaking between 16 and 19 ft
in this area. As this low gradually moves eastward over the next
couple of days, both winds and seas should begin to subside
starting early Mon morning but frequent gusts to gale force along
with seas above 12 ft will persist through Mon afternoon. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 06N32W to 03N40W to 03N51W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to
14N between 22W and 34W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01N to 10N between 37W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to dominate across the gulf waters
supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh N winds and seas in
the 3 to 5 ft range E of 90W where there is a tighter pressure
grandient, and gentle to moderate NE to E winds with seas to 3 ft
W of 90W.

For the forecast, surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters
through midweek. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across
the eastern Gulf will continue through Mon night. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through midweek. Moderate
to locally fresh southerly winds are expected across the NW Gulf
Wed night into Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter
the Gulf region by Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba SW to central Nicaragua
adjacent waters with fresh to strong northerly winds following
the front. Scattered showers are between 76W and 85W.

For the forecast, the cold front is expected to drift eastward
through Tue while dissipating. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
forecast within about 60 nm of coast of Nicaragua, in the wake of
the front, Mon through Tue. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will
prevail across the east and central Caribbean through mid-week,
with the exception of moderate to fresh trade winds near the coast
of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the
Gale Warning off the Georgia-NE Florida coast.

A non-tropical low pressure system located N of area is still
producing gale force winds across the waters N of 29N between 74W
and 80W. As the low moves east-northeastward over the next few
days, expect the winds and associated seas to gradually diminish.
The associated cold front enters the forecast region near 31N69W,
and continues SW to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and tstms are
ahead of the front N of 24N between 58W and 70W. Over the far NE
Atlantic waters fresh to strong N to NE winds are observed N of
26N and E of the Canary Islands. The remainder subtropical
Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores high which
is supporting light to gentle winds.

For the forecast west of 65W, the front will reach from near
Bermuda to eastern Cuba on Mon, and from 31N61W to the Windward
passage on Tue while dissipating. A reinforcing cold front will
move mainly across the waters N of 27N Mon through Wed.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Ramos
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