[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

West Atlantic Gale Warning: As of 07/2100 UTC a 993 mb low
pressure is centered near 32N75W over the N Carolina SE offshore
waters. Strong to gale-force winds are found N of 27N W of the low
towards the coastal waters. Seas are peaking between 16 and 19 ft
in this area. As this low gradually moves eastward over the next
couple of days, both winds and seas should begin to subside
starting early Mon morning but frequent gusts to gale force along
with seas above 12 ft will persist through Mon afternoon. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 06N32W to 03N40W to 03N51W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to
14N between 22W and 34W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01N to 10N between 37W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to dominate across the gulf waters
supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh N winds and seas in
the 3 to 5 ft range E of 90W where there is a tighter pressure
grandient, and gentle to moderate NE to E winds with seas to 3 ft
W of 90W.

For the forecast, surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters
through midweek. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across
the eastern Gulf will continue through Mon night. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through midweek. Moderate
to locally fresh southerly winds are expected across the NW Gulf
Wed night into Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter
the Gulf region by Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends southwestward from E central Cuba to
NE Nicaragua. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm are
occurring near and up to 80 nm SE of the front. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin.
Recent satellite scatterometer and altimetery data show moderate
to fresh with locally strong N to NNE winds over the NW basin,
behind the stationary front with seas at 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to
fresh ENE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present across the S
central basin, N of Colombia and Venezuela. Mainly gentle NE to E
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front will linger in this region
through Tue. Fresh northerly winds and seas up to 6 ft will
persist across the NW Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are forecast off the Nicaragua coast Mon
after the frontal passage and become fresh by Tue. Moderate to
locally fresh trade winds are expected across the E and central
Caribbean today. Expect moderate trades to resume by midweek
across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the
Gale Warning off the Georgia-NE Florida coast.

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1008 mb low pressure
ENE of Bermuda near 34N70W across 31N70W and the central Bahamas
to E central Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are found near and up to 100 nm SE of the front.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident S of
Bermuda, N of 28N between 63W and 69W. Farther E, an mid to
upper-level low well SSW of Azores near 28N34W is producing
scattered moderate convection N of 18N between 30W and 39W.
Convergent trade winds are generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the Guyana-Venezuela border and nearby waters.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the basin. Moderate to fresh SSE to WSW with locally
strong winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are present near the cold
front, N of 22N between 59W and 72W. Fresh to strong NE winds with
seas of 9 to 12 ft dominate waters near the Canary Islands, N of
23N between the NW African coast and 20W. N of 20N, light to
gentle with locally moderate winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted
between 20W and 59W. Gentle to moderate ENE to NE trades with
seas at 4 to 6 ft exist from 08N to 20N between the African coast
and the Lesser Antilles/S American coast. Gentle to moderate E to
SE trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, gale force winds are still noted on
either side of the front mainly N of 29N. These winds are
forecast to persist through Mon. The cold front will extend from
31N67W to E Cuba this evening, and from 31N62W to near the
Windward passage by Mon evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds
with gusts to gale force will continue N of 27N between 65W and
70W through Mon night. Conditions will begin to improve for the
areas N of 28N by Tue morning as moderate winds prevail through
Thu.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Ramos
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