[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Nov 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Wanda has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone and is
centered near 40.2N 33.5W at 07/1500 UTC or 330 nm WNW of the
Azores and moving NE at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to
45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 80 nm of the
center. Wanda is currently interacting with a cold front and
expected to be absorbed by it on Monday. For more information,
please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo France at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: As of 07/1500 UTC a 999 mb low
pressure is centered near 32N76W about 290 nm ENE of the Georgia-
Florida border. Strong to gale-force ESE to NW winds are found
near and S of the center, N of 28N between 72W and 81W. Seas are
peaking between 16 and 19 ft in this area. As this low gradually
moves eastward over the next couple of days, both winds and seas
should begin to subside starting early Mon morning but frequent
gusts to gale force along with seas above 12 ft will persist
through Mon afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough stays over the African continent. An ITCZ
extends westward from 05N18W through 04N34W to the coast of
NE Brazil near 03N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted near the ITCZ from 04N to 11N between 24W and
32W. Scattered moderate convection is seen farther W from 01N to
05N between 37W and the coast of Brazil. Similar conditions are
also present farther E from 03N to 09N between 16W and 22W.

The E Pacific monsoon trough is producing numerous heavy showers
and scattered thunderstorms over Costa Rica and Panama, and
adjacent Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough near 22N91W is triggering scattered showers over
the S central Gulf, including the N Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise,
a 1026 mb high pressure centered near the Texas-Louisiana border
is dominating the W and central Gulf with light to gentle NE to
ENE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft. Moderate with locally fresh NNW
to N winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the E Gulf, including
the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through midweek. Moderate
to locally fresh northerly winds across the E Gulf will continue
through Mon night and become gentle by Tue. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends southwestward from E central Cuba to
NE Nicaragua. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm are
occurring near and up to 80 nm SE of the front. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin.
Recent satellite scatterometer and altimetery data show moderate
to fresh with locally strong N to NNE winds over the NW basin,
behind the stationary front with seas at 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to
fresh ENE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present across the S
central basin, N of Colombia and Venezuela. Mainly gentle NE to E
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front will linger in this region
through Tue. Fresh northerly winds and seas up to 6 ft will
persist across the NW Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are forecast off the Nicaragua coast Mon
after the frontal passage and become fresh by Tue. Moderate to
locally fresh trade winds are expected across the E and central
Caribbean today. Expect moderate trades to resume by midweek
across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the
Gale Warning off the Georgia-NE Florida coast.

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1008 mb low pressure
ENE of Bermuda near 34N70W across 31N70W and the central Bahamas
to E central Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are found near and up to 100 nm SE of the front.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident S of
Bermuda, N of 28N between 63W and 69W. Farther E, an mid to
upper-level low well SSW of Azores near 28N34W is producing
scattered moderate convection N of 18N between 30W and 39W.
Convergent trade winds are generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the Guyana-Venezuela border and nearby waters.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the basin. Moderate to fresh SSE to WSW with locally
strong winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are present near the cold
front, N of 22N between 59W and 72W. Fresh to strong NE winds with
seas of 9 to 12 ft dominate waters near the Canary Islands, N of
23N between the NW African coast and 20W. N of 20N, light to
gentle with locally moderate winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted
between 20W and 59W. Gentle to moderate ENE to NE trades with
seas at 4 to 6 ft exist from 08N to 20N between the African coast
and the Lesser Antilles/S American coast. Gentle to moderate E to
SE trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, gale force winds are still noted on
either side of the front mainly N of 29N. These winds are
forecast to persist through Mon. The cold front will extend from
31N67W to E Cuba this evening, and from 31N62W to near the
Windward passage by Mon evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds
with gusts to gale force will continue N of 27N between 65W and
70W through Mon night. Conditions will begin to improve for the
areas N of 28N by Tue morning as moderate winds prevail through
Thu.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net