[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 37.4N 38.3W at 06/0900 UTC
or 540 nm W of the Azores moving S at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 60 nm of the center in the E semicircle and 30 nm W
semicircle. A further decrease in forward speed is expected to
continue this morning. A sharp turn toward the northeast is
forecast to occur by this afternoon, followed by acceleration
toward the northeast tonight, with that motion continuing on
Sunday and Monday. Little change in strength is expected during
the next couple of days. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction
Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

Atlantic Storm Warning and Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of
06/0900 UTC a 1006 mb low pressure is located in the Atlantic
about 60 nm ENE of Cape Canaveral Florida near 29N81W. A warm
front extends east-northeastward from the low. A cold front
extends SW from this low to the Florida Keys and western Cuba near
23N82W. Overnight ASCAT wind data from late Friday evening show
gale force N to NE winds of 35 to 45 kt located north of the first
low and the warm front, north of 29N and west of 77.5W to the
coast of northern Florida. Buoy 41117 located 10 nm offshore of
St. Augustine Florida is measuring 13 ft seas at 0800 UTC. Seas
of 12-16 ft are likely occurring offshore of NE Florida within the
gale force wind area. The ASCAT data also showed gale force winds
around 35 kt in the Gulf of Mexico from 27.5N-29.5N and east of
84W to the coast of Florida. Buoy 42003 in the Gulf of Mexico near
25.9N 85.6W is measuring winds NNE 19 kt gusting to 23 kt with
wave heights of 10 ft at 0900 UTC. As the low continues moving
to the northeast, expect the gales to end in the Gulf of Mexico
this morning. The low in the Atlantic is will continue to deepen
with storm force winds persisting through much of the day, north
of 29N and west of 79W. Storm force winds will end by Sun
afternoon W of 77W, but gales will continue offshore of NE
Florida through at least Sunday. Seas are forecast to build to 20
ft in the Gulf Stream this weekend offshore of NE Florida. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: ASCAT data from around 05/2100 UTC
show gale force N winds occurring in the marine zone Agadir north
of 30N and within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco. Meteo-France is
forecasting gale force winds to continue in this area through at
least 07/0600 UTC. Seas will be around 12 ft in the area. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at
website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends along
06N between 16W-50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
the ITCZ from 03N to 09N between 17W-43W. Scattered showers are
seen north of the ITCZ between 43W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about
the gale warning for the NE Gulf.

High pressure is moving in over the NW Gulf in the wake of the
front in the eastern Gulf. Overnight ASCAT pass has strong N
winds east of 87W and fresh N winds east of 92W. Seas are more
than 8 ft east of 87W, and 6 to 8 ft between 87W and 92W. Mainly
moderate N or NE winds cover the western Gulf of Mexico with 5 to
7 ft seas. Gentle NE to E winds are off the Texas coast, where
seas are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from the central Florida
coast near 26N82W to western Cuba near 23N83W. Gusts to gale force
are expected to continue across portions of the eastern Gulf
through early this morning, becoming fresh to strong through the
rest of the day. Winds and seas will diminish over the eastern
Gulf tonight into Sun as high pressure builds in the wake of the
front. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from western Cuba near 22N84W to central
Belize near 18N88W. A surface trough stretches from 20N81W to
12N83W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen
well east of the front between Nicaragua Cuba, including the
Cayman Islands area to the western tip of Jamaica from 12N to 20N
between 75W to 85W. Overnight ASCAT shows fresh NW to N winds to
the NW of the front, while gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere west of 75W. ASCAT shows fresh trades in the south-
central Caribbean, with moderate winds elsewhere east of 75W. Seas
are 3 to 5 ft across the open waters of the eastern and central
Caribbean, and 1 to 3 ft over the western Caribbean. The exception
is behind the front, where seas of 5 to 7 ft are building
southward through the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the cold front stretches from western Cuba to
central Belize. Fresh N winds continue near the Yucatan channel
and spreading across the NW Caribbean. The front will reach from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by this afternoon, from
central Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua border by tonight and from
the Windward Passage to southern Nicaragua by Sun. The fresh
northerly winds and building seas will spread across the NW
Caribbean through early next week following the front. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are forecast off the Nicaragua coast Mon
through Tue after the frontal passage. High pressure over the
Atlantic continues to support moderate to locally fresh winds over
the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the Storm
Warning off the NE Florida coast and for the Gale Warning in
effect offshore of Morocco.

As of 06/0900 UTC, a 1006 mb low is located near 28N80W with a
warm front stretching east from the low to 31N79W. The cold front
remains over Florida at this time. A surface trough extends along
and east of the northern Bahamas from 29N72W to 26N78W. Scattered
moderate convection is in the area N of 22N and west of 65W.
Strong SE winds are in between the surface trough and the
low/warm front. A surface trough is analyzed in the central
Atlantic from 29N54W to 23N52W with no significant convection.
Another trough extends from 31N37W to 27N40W with isolated
thunderstorms within 60nm E of the trough. Gentle to moderate
winds persist across the remainder of the Atlantic, north of 20N
and west of 25W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Fresh trades are east
of the Lesser Antilles from 07N-14N and west of 43W. Fresh to
strong winds cover portions of the NE Atlantic north of 20N and
east of 20W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the low is expected to move N of
the forecast area by tonight with the cold front from 31N77W to
central Cuba, and from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sun night.
Gale force winds, with frequent gusts to storm force, are expected
to continue across the waters N of 28N and W of 77W through Sun
morning. The pressure gradient between the gale center and high
pressure over the NE of United States will also support gusts to
gale force winds N of 30N between 77W and 80W through Sun night.
Fresh to strong winds with gusts to gale force will continue
between 77W and 65W through Tue.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
AReinhart
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