[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 38.0N 38.1W at 06/0300 UTC
or 525 nm W of the Azores moving S at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted
within 60 nm of the center in the E semicircle and 90 nm W
semicircle. A decrease in forward speed is expected this
morning, followed by a turn toward the northeast later today and
a faster northeastward motion on Sunday and Monday. Little
change in strength is expected during the next couple of days.
Wanda is expected to become extratropical Sunday night. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

Atlantic Storm Warning and Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of
06/0300 UTC...or 11pm EDT Friday night...a 1009 mb low pressure
is located in the Atlantic about 50 nm ENE of Cape Canaveral
Florida near 29N80W. A warm front extends east-northeastward
from the low. A stationary front extends SW from this low to
another 1009 mb low pressure located near Ft. Myers Florida. A
cold front extends SW from this low to the western tip of Cuba.
Recent ASCAT wind data from late Friday evening show gale force
N to NE winds of 35 to 45 kt located north of the first low and
the warm front, north of 29N and west of 77.5W to the coast of
northern Florida. Buoy 41117 located 10 nm offshore of St.
Augustine Florida is measuring 12 ft seas at 0400 UTC. Seas of
12-16 ft are likely occurring offshore of NE Florida within the
gale force wind area. The ASCAT data also show gale force winds
around 35 kt in the Gulf of Mexico from 27.5N-29.5N and east of
84W to the coast of Florida. Buoy 42003 in the Gulf of Mexico
near 25.9N 85.6W is measuring winds NNE 23 kt gusting to 27 kt
with wave heights of 13 ft at 0400 UTC...midnight local time. As
the lows move slowly northeastward, expect the gales to end in
the Gulf of Mexico later this morning. The main low in the
Atlantic is expected to deepen this morning just offshore of NE
Florida. Expect storm force winds to 50 kt to develop near the
low early this morning and persist through much of the day,
north of 29N and west of 79W. Storm force winds will end by late
tonight, but gales will continue offshore of NE Florida through
at least Sunday, as the low pressure moves slowly and
erratically. Seas are forecast to build to 20 ft in the Gulf
Stream this weekend offshore of NE Florida. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: ASCAT data from around 05/2100 UTC
show gale force N winds occurring in the marine zone Agadir
north of 30N and within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco. Expect
gale force winds to continue in this area through at least
07/0000 UTC, according to Meteo-France. Seas will be around 12
ft in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends along
06N between 16W-50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
the ITCZ between 27W-34W. Scattered showers are seen north of
the ITCZ between 41W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about
the gale warning for the NE Gulf.

High pressure is moving in over the NW Gulf in the wake of the
low and front. The latest ASCAT pass has strong N winds east of
87W and fresh N winds east of 92W. Seas are more than 8 ft east
of 87W, and 6 to 8 ft between 87W and 92W. Mainly moderate N or
NE winds cover the southwest Gulf of Mexico with 5 to 7 ft seas,
as gentle NE to E winds are off the Texas coast, where seas are
2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the low and cold front will exit the eastern
Gulf before sunrise this morning. Gale force winds over the far
eastern Gulf will end by mid-morning today. Winds and seas will
diminish over the eastern Gulf this afternoon through Sun as
high pressure builds in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from western Cuba near 22N84.5W to northern
Belize near 18N88W. A surface trough is along 82W from 12N-20N.
Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen well
east of the front between NE Honduras and eastern Cuba,
including the Cayman Islands area to the western tip of Jamaica.
ASCAT shows fresh NW to N winds to the NW of the front, while
gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere west of 75W. ASCAT
shows fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean, with moderate
winds elsewhere east of 75W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the open
waters of the eastern and central Caribbean, and 1 to 3 ft over
the western Caribbean. The exception is behind the front, where
seas of 5 to 8 ft are building southward through the Yucatan
Channel.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to
northern Nicaragua by this evening and stall by Sun. The fresh
northerly winds will continue spreading across the NW Caribbean
through the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
forecast off the Nicaragua coast Mon and Mon night after the
frontal passage. High pressure over the Atlantic will continue
to support moderate to locally fresh winds over the eastern and
central Caribbean through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 06/0300 UTC, a cold front enters the area near 31N67W and
extends to 30N72W. A warm front is from 30N72W to 1009 mb low
pressure near 29N80W. A stationary front extends SW from the low
to Ft. Myers Florida. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N66W
to 25N80W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
north of 22N and west of 67W. Winds to 45 kt are occurring
offshore NE Florida near the low pressure. Please see the
Special Features section above for details about the storm
warning east of NE Florida. Strong SE winds are in between the
surface trough and the low/warm front. Gentle to moderate winds
persist across the remainder of the Atlantic, north of 20N and
west of 25W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Isolated tstorms north of
26N between 27W-31W are associated with a surface trough. Fresh
trades are east of the Lesser Antilles from 07N-14N and west of
43W. Fresh to strong winds cover portions of the NE Atlantic
north of 20N and east of 20W. Please see the Special Features
section above for information on the Gale Warning in effect
offshore of Morocco.

For the forecast west of 65W, gale to storm force winds are
expected today just off NE Florida and W of the low pressure
center. The pressure gradient between the low pressure center
and high pressure over the NE United States will support a
continuation of gale force winds N of 30N between 77W and 80W
through Sun night. The trailing cold front will stretch from
near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sun night. Fresh to strong winds
will continue across the waters N of 27N through at least Mon.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Hagen
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