[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040455
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 40.6N 39.6W at 04/0300 UTC
or 605 nm WNW of the Azores moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found within
180 nm of the center, especially in the NW quadrant. A slower northward
motion is expected through this morning. A slow eastern motion is
forecast by Thursday night, followed by a faster south-
southeastward motion by Friday. Some slight strengthening is
possible during the next day or two. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction
Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 06N19W. The ITCZ stretches from
06N19W to 02N38W and then continues from 02N41W to 01S47W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ
between 22W and 29W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Big Bend region of Florida to
near 29N94W and then continues as a cold front from 29N94W to
southern Texas near 27N98W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed within 100 nm of the SE Texas and SW Louisiana coasts.
Seas of 3-6 ft are found behind the cold front in the NW Gulf. A
surface trough extends from 28N86W to 23N88W and it is producing a
few shallow showers near the trough axis. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicated a sharp trough and fresh cyclonic winds
within 60 nm of the trough axis. The rest of the Gulf enjoys
fairly tranquil weather conditions with moderate or weaker
anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, a front moving into the northern Gulf will move
across the western Gulf through early Fri. Low pressure will
develop ahead of the front over the south-central Gulf by early
Thu, then move to the northeast into central Florida through late
Fri. the front will follow, and move southeast of the Gulf by late
Sat. Strong to near gale force winds are possible over the
northeast Gulf by late Fri as the low moves inland, with frequent
gusts to gale force possible. Winds and seas will diminish over
the western Gulf Sat through early next week as high pressure
builds north of the area following the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are found in the NW Caribbean Sea due to two
surface troughs. One of the troughs is located along 82W,
extending from Havana to 18N81W. The scattered moderate convection
is within 180 nm to the E of the trough axis, affecting the
Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba. The other surface trough is
found in the Gulf of Honduras and the shower activity has
decreased in the last few hours, with the heaviest showers
occurring within 60 nm of the N Honduras coast. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass show fresh trades within 60 nm of the
Colombian coast, while moderate or weaker winds prevail in the
rest of the basin. Seas of 2-4 ft are present in the central and
eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, a trough over the northwest Caribbean is
weakening, allowing winds and seas to diminish. High pressure over
the Atlantic is supporting moderate winds and seas over the
eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh N winds and building seas
will follow a a cold front moving through the Yucatan Channel Fri
night. The front will reach from central Cuba to eastern Honduras
Sat night, and from eastern Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua by late
Sun. The front start to stall by Mon as it drifts eastward into
the Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the deep tropics, a surface trough extends from 09N37W to
00N41W and it is interacting with an upper level trough to the
north, resulting in a large area of disorganized showers and
isolated thunderstorms, mainly from 01N to 09N and between 33W
and 44W. Recent scatterometer satellite data show a broad trough
with fresh to strong trades, especially in areas of heavy
showers. Farther north, a surface trough extends from 31N31W to
17N37W and scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm
to the E of the trough axis, mainly N of 23N. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are also present E of the trough axis to 29W and mainly
N of 22N. The rest of the basin is dominated by a weak 1021 mb
high pressure several hundred miles NE of Bermuda, favoring fairly
tranquil weather conditions. Fresh N-NE winds are occurring E of
20W and from 19N to 24N. Moderate or weaker winds prevail in the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Seas of 3-6 ft are noted W of
60W and 4-7 ft elsewhere in the basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine
and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at
website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure north of the area will
support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through the early
morning. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a cold front
moving into the waters off northeast Florida Thu night. A low will
develop along the front by Fri evening and strong to near gale
force are anticipated to develop over the waters off northeast
Florida through Sat. Frequents gusts to gale force are possible
Fri night off northeast Florida, then gale-force NW winds are
expected on Sat.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net