[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032207
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 39.8N 39.5W at 03/2100 UTC
or 590 nm WNW of the Azores moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found
within 90 nm of the center. Wanda will continue on a northward
motion for the next day or so, followed by slowing and a sharp
turn to the east by Thursday night. Little change in intensity is
forecast during the next couple of days. Please see the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction
Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Senegal
coast near 15N17W to 12N20W. No significant convection is seen
near the monsoon trough. Farther SW, the ITCZ extends westward
from 04N20W to 05N32W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 01N to 10N between 25W and
41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near the Florida Big Bend to
near Galveston, Texas. Light to gentle winds prevail across the
Gulf waters. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the northwest Gulf
tonight. Fresh winds will follow the front through Thu as it
reaches from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico by
late Thu. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the
southeast Gulf ahead of the front by late Thu. The low will
deepen by late Fri as it moves into the east Gulf, with the front
extending from the low to the southwest Gulf near Veracruz,
Mexico. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over the
northeast Gulf by Fri night as the low moves onshore over north
Florida. Winds and seas will diminish over the western Gulf Sat
as the front moves southeast of the area. High pressure will
build north of the area Sun following the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras is coupling with
divergent winds aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the NW basin, including the E coast of Belize
and N coast of Honduras. This activity is forecast to spread
inland into S Belize, N Honduras and E Guatemala Thu and Fri.
Heavy downpours from strong thunderstorms will increase the
chance of local flooding in rivers and valleys. Another surface
trough over the Cayman Islands and W Cuba is producing scattered
showers isolated thunderstorms across the nearby Caribbean
waters. An upper-level low just NW of Puerto Rico near 20N68W is
causing similar conditions across E Dominican Republic, Puerto
Rico, the Virgin Islands and nearby waters.

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central Caribbean,
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft
range.

For the forecast, a surface trough extends across the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail in the vicinity of
the trough with scattered moderate convection. A weak pressure
gradient will support gentle to moderate trade winds across the
central and eastern basin into Sat. A cold front will move into
the northwest Caribbean by early Sat, followed by moderate to
fresh N winds. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to eastern
Honduras by late Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends over the far NW waters off the coast
of northern Florida. Otherwise, three surface trough are noted
across the area. The first trough extends from 31N71W to 26N73W.
Shallow convection is noted east of the trough axis. The second
trough extends from 29N47W to 24N53W. No significant convection
is associated to this trough. A third trough extends from 28N33W
to 17N39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted within 90 nm east of the trough axis. Fresh to locally
strong winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are noted west of the
stationary front. Elsewhere light to gentle winds prevail across
the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N. Seas are in
the 4-7 ft range north of 25N between 30W and 45W, in the 1-3 ft
range over the waters west of 73W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Over
the tropical waters south of 20N, gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 3-5 ft, prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine
and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at
website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure north of the area
will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through tonight.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a cold front moving
into the waters off northeast Florida Thu night. A low will
develop along the front by Fri evening and strong to near gale
force are anticipated to develop over the waters off northeast
Florida through Sat. Frequents gusts to gale force are possible
Fri night off northeast Florida, then gale-force NW winds are
expected on Sat.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net