[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022150
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 36.6N 40.4W at 02/2100 UTC
or 640 nm W of the Azores moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Little change in intensity is forecast
during the next couple of days. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction
Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

Locally Heavy Rainfall expected across portions of Central America:
A low pressure system located along the western coast of Costa
Rica is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the far eastern Pacific, extending across southern
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama into the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. This disturbance will still produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama
through tonight, which could result in flooding and mudslides. By
Wednesday, the system is forecast to move further into the the
eastern Pacific basin. In addition, a shearline in the Gulf of
Honduras is forecast to support rainfall in parts of Honduras,
Guatemala and Belize through early Fri. A moist and unstable
atmosphere is already in place over most of Central America along
with moist monsoonal flow south of the monsoon trough. All these
ingredients are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
over northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, eastern
Nicaragua and some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. Refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details, and consult products from your local meteorological
offices.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through The
Gambia/Senegal border near 13N17W to 08N21W. The ITCZ then
continues from 08N21W to 05N27W to the coast of French Guiana.
Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to
06N between 23W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from northern Florida to Louisiana. Moderate
northerly winds are noted north of the front with light to gentle
winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the
basin will increase to moderate to fresh over the northern half
of the gulf by Thu morning between a front expected to extend
along the northern Gulf coastal waters by Wed night and a surface
trough that will develop N of the Yucatan Peninsula. The surface
trough will shift NE and become a low along the cold front on
Fri afternoon. Strong to near gale force winds will develop over
the NE basin Fri and continue to affect the waters E of 86W
through Sat as the front moves E of the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Locally Heavy Rainfall is expected across portions of Central
America. Please, see the Special Features section for details. A
shearline extends from near Cabo Cruz in eastern Cuba to near the
Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers and tstms
are noted between the Cayman Islands and the Gulf of Honduras in
association to this shearline. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE
winds are west of the shearline. This feature will slowly shift
westward through Wed, supporting scattered showers. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean waters.
Seas are in the 3-6 ft range across much of the Caribbean waters,
reaching 7 ft over the south central Caribbean.

For the forecast, the shearline is forecast to prevail through
Wed morning, supporting scattered showers and moderate to fresh
NE winds in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
over the SW Caribbean will diminish this evening. A weak
pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate trade
winds across the central and E basin through Sat night.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh N winds are forecast for the NW
Caribbean waters Fri evening through Sun night in the wake of a
cold front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N73W to northern Florida. Farther
east, a dissipating stationary front enters the forecast area
near 31N52W, then continues SW to eastern Cuba. Patches of low
level clouds with possible showers are noted along the frontal
boundary. E of the front, a surface trough extends from 31N36W to
17N56W. Farther east, a 1011 mb low pressure is seen near 20N35W
with a trough along it. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted E of the surface trough and covers the waters
from 16N to 29N between 28W and 35W. The eastern Atlantic is
under the influence of a 1023 mb high pressure centered near
33N21W. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of 25N between 29W
and 37W. Gentle to moderate winds are north of 25N between 37W
and 40W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the
6-8 ft range north of 20N between 30W and 55W. Elsewhere, over
the open waters, seas are in the 3-6 ft range. SW of the Bahamas,
seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash cloud is
detectable on satellite imagery extending eastward 20 nm. Low
volcanic ash concentration elsewhere. Marine and aviation
interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the
Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will
dissipate tonight. High pressure building behind the front will
support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through Wed, except
occasionally pulsing to fresh off Hispaniola mainly at night.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a cold
front moving into the waters off NE Florida Thu night. A low will
develop along the front by Fri evening and gale force winds are
anticipated to develop over the NW offshore waters through Sat.
The cold front is expected to extend from 31N70W to eastern Cuba
by Sun night.

$$
AL
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