[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022126
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Wanda is moving northward over the northern Atlantic. At 02/1500
UTC, Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 35.6N 40.6W or 670 nm
W of the Azores moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. On the forecast track, a turn toward the north-
northeast is expected this afternoon or evening, followed by a
northeastward motion tonight and Wednesday. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Deep
convection related to Wanda has diminished since overnight but
the low level circulation remains well defined. Please see the
latest Wanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

Locally Heavy Rainfall expected across portions of Central America:
A low pressure system located along the eastern coast of Costa
Rica is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to move
westward over Central America later today, and significant
development is unlikely due to its interaction with land. However,
this disturbance will still produce locally heavy rainfall across
portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama through
today, which could result in flooding and mudslides. By Wednesday,
the system is forecast to move into the far eastern portion of the
eastern Pacific basin. In addition, a shearline in the Gulf of
Honduras is forecast to support rainfall in parts of Honduras,
Guatemala and Belize through early Fri. A moist and unstable
atmosphere is already in place over most of Central America along
with moist southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. All these
ingredients are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
over northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, eastern
Nicaragua and some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. Refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details, and consult products from your local meteorological
offices.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through The
Gambia/Senegal border near 13N17W to 08N21W. The ITCZ then
continues from 08N21W to 05N27W to the coast of French Guiana.
Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to
06N between 23W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from northern Florida to Louisiana. Moderate
northerly winds are noted north of the front with light to gentle
winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the
basin will increase to moderate to fresh over the northern half
of the gulf by Thu morning between a front expected to extend
along the northern Gulf coastal waters by Wed night and a surface
trough that will develop N of the Yucatan Peninsula. The surface
trough will shift NE and become a low along the cold front on
Fri afternoon. Strong to near gale force winds will develop over
the NE basin Fri and continue to affect the waters E of 86W
through Sat as the front moves E of the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Locally Heavy Rainfall is expected across portions of Central
America. Please, see the Special Features section for details. A
shearline extends from near Cabo Cruz in eastern Cuba to near the
Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers and tstms
are noted between the Cayman Islands and the Gulf of Honduras in
association to this shearline. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE
winds are west of the shearline. This feature will slowly shift
westward through Wed, supporting scattered showers. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean waters.
Seas are in the 3-6 ft range across much of the Caribbean waters,
reaching 7 ft over the south central Caribbean.

For the forecast, the shearline is forecast to prevail through
Wed morning, supporting scattered showers and moderate to fresh
NE winds in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
over the SW Caribbean will diminish this evening. A weak
pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate trade
winds across the central and E basin through Sat night.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh N winds are forecast for the NW
Caribbean waters Fri evening through Sun night in the wake of a
cold front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N52W, then continues
SW to near 26N61W where it becomes stationary to eastern Cuba.
Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas in the 6-7 ft
range are in the wake of the cold front. Patches of low level
clouds with possible showers are noted along the frontal boundary.
E of the front, a surface trough extends from 31N37W to 22N44W to
19N57W. Seas are 8-10 ft in northerly swell N of 25N between the
front and the trough. Farther east, a 1012 mb low pressure is
seen near 21N35W with a trough along it. This is the reflexion of
an upper level trough. A band of moderate to isolated strong
convection is just E of the surface trough and covers the waters
from 18N to 29N between 30W and 35W. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are noted in association with this convective activity.
Between the trough and the W coast of Africa mainly moderate
trades prevail with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the
Atlantic. The eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a 1024 mb
high pressure located mid-way between the Azores and the Madeira
Islands.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash cloud is
detectable on satellite imagery extending eastward 20 nm. Low
volcanic ash concentration elsewhere. Marine and aviation
interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the
Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front extending to
eastern Cuba, will continue to weaken today. High pressure building
behind the front will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds
through mid week, except occasionally pulsing to fresh off
Hispaniola mainly at night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE
winds will follow a front moving into the waters off NE Florida
Thu night. A low will develop along the front by Fri evening and
gale force winds are anticipated to develop over the NW offshore
waters through Sat. The cold front is expected to extend from
31N74W to central Cuba by Sat night.

$$
AL
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