[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 35.0N 40.9W at 02/0900 UTC
or 700 nm W of the Azores moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection within 90 nm
of the center on the northern quadrant. During the next couple of
days, Wanda is likely to remain embedded within a mid-
tropospheric trough. A turn toward the north is expected during
the next 48 to 60 hours while the system moves along the eastern
portion of the trough. Later in the forecast period, a ridge
building to the west and northwest of Wanda should force a turn
toward the east and east-southeast. Please see the latest Wanda
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction
Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W to 07N21W. The ITCZ then continues from
07N21W to 05N25W to 10N35W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 02N to 04N between 10W and 13W, from 02N05N between
18W and 21W, and from 03N from 06N between 27W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1033 mb high pressure system over the central United States
extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico. The dry continental
airmass that moved into the region behind the previous cold front
continues to limit the development of showers and thunderstorms.
Currently, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the
basin. The weak pressure gradient result in moderate or weaker
anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will
maintain light to gentle easterly breezes and slight seas through
mid week. Winds will increase to moderate by Thu over the northern
Gulf as a trough develops over the southeast Gulf and ahead of a
cold front moving into the northwest Gulf early Thu. Fresh to
strong N to NE winds are forecast for the waters W of 94W early
Thu evening through Fri, decreasing to moderate to fresh in the
region of Veracruz on Sat. The front will reach from near Tampa,
Florida to the W Bay of Campeche Fri morning and fresh to strong
NE winds will develop over the offshore waters between the Florida
Big Bend and the front. The front will exit the basin Fri night,
allowing seas to gradually subside through late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are west of this line, which is
also supporting scattered showers and tstms. This feature will
slowly shift westward through Wed, supporting the continuation of
showers and fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean. Farther south,
1009 mb low pressure remains anchored along the monsoon trough
near 10N81W, north of western Panama and east Costa Rica. A
relatively weak pressure pattern is in place elsewhere, supporting
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. Other than the showers
and thunderstorms near the shear line, only a few showers are
noted over the Leeward Islands.

For the forecast, the shear line feature will slowly shift
westward through Wed, supporting the continuation of showers and
fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds over the southwest Caribbean will diminish today as a low
pressure over the SW Caribbean weakens into a surface trough
through mid week. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support
mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the central and E
basin through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to 26N63W, then is stationary to
eastern Cuba. No significant weather is observed along the front.
Over the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N37W
to 20N50W to 20N60W. Farther east, an upper trough from 31N35W to
15N40W to 10N50W is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
from north of 15N between 30W and 35W. A 1010 mb low is centered
in this area near 17N35W. Fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas
are evident north of 25N between 25W and 40W, and from from 13N to
17N between 25W and 35W. Mostly moderate winds and seas are
evident elsewhere.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash cloud
detectable on satellite imagery extending northward and eastward.
Medium volcanic ash consentrations is evident in vicinity of the
volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-
France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes /la- palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will dissipate
later today. High pressure building behind the front will support
gentle to moderate NE to E winds through mid week, except
occasionally pulsing to fresh off Hispaniola mainly at night.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a front
moving into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri. Fresh to
strong N winds will follow the front over the waters west of 77W
Fri night into Sat.

$$
Christensen
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