[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Nov 2 00:11:29 CDT 2021

AXNT20 KNHC 020511
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 34.5N 41.6W at 02/0300 UTC,
or 735 nm WSW of the Azores moving ENE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen within 200 nm across the NE quadrant of Wanda.
Little change in strength is expected through midweek. A turn toward
the northeast is expected today, followed by a slightly faster
northward motion tonight and Wednesday. Please see the latest
Wanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave previously along 42W is analyzed to have
dissipated based on satellite imagery and wave guidance.
Therefore, no tropical waves are noted across the basin.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
The Gambia near 13N17W to 09N23W. The ITCZ then continues from
09N23W to 09N34W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within
200 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 29W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1031 mb high pressure system over the central United States
extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico. The dry continental
airmass that moved into the region behind the previous cold front
continues to limit the development of showers and thunderstorms.
Currently, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the
basin. The weak pressure gradient result in moderate or weaker
anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure north of the area will
maintain light to gentle easterly breezes and slight seas through
Tue. Winds will increase to moderate Wed over the northern half of
the Gulf, as a trough develops over the southeast Gulf and ahead
of a cold front moving into the northwest Gulf Wed night into Thu.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds are forecast for the waters W of
94W early Thu evening through Fri, decreasing to moderate to fresh
in the region of Veracruz on Sat. The front will reach from near
Tampa, Florida to the W Bay of Campeche Fri morning and fresh to
strong NE winds will develop over the offshore waters between the
Florida Big Bend and the front. The front will exit the basin Fri
night, allowing seas to gradually subside through late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line, remnant of a former dissipating stationary front,
stretches from E Cuba near 21N77W to E Honduras near 15N84W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within
150 nm W of the shear line and S of 20N. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass show fresh to locally strong NE winds N of 18N and
between the shear line to 84W. Meanwhile, a 1009 mb low pressure
near 11N82W along the E Pacific monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean
is producing disorganized showers and isolated thunderstorms
within 100 nm of the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica and SE
Nicaragua. Satellite- derived wind data indicate that fresh trades
are found in the SW Caribbean, especially in association with the
storm activity in the area.

The rest of the Caribbean Sea is experiencing a dry airmass,
suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. Moderate
or weaker winds are found in the central and E Caribbean. Seas of
3-5 ft are occurring in the SW Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a shear line, remnant of a former dissipating
stationary front, extends from eastern Cuba to Cabo Gracias a
Dios, Honduras. This feature will slowly shift westward through
Wed, supporting the continuation of showers and fresh NE winds in
the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the
southwest Caribbean will diminish Tue as a low pressure over the
SW Caribbean weakens into a surface trough through mid week.
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to
moderate trade winds across the central and E basin through Sat
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to E Cuba near 21N75W. Only a few
showers are observed near the frontal boundary. Farther west, a
weak surface trough stretches from SE Florida to near Andros
Island in the NW Bahamas. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis, mainly within 60 nm of the Florida coast. Over the central
Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 33N37W to 20N62W and
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen N of 20N
and between 30W and 37W. Recent satellite-derived wind data depict
fresh to strong SE-S winds N of 20N and between 28W and 41W. Seas
of 7-10 ft are occurring N of 24N and between 29W and 53W.

In the deep tropics, a 1010 mb low pressure is located near
15N34W or several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
This system continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity mainly within 360 nm E of the low pressure.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to
strong winds are present to the E of the low pressure center,
mainly from 12N and 20N and between 29W and 35W. Seas of 6-9 ft
are found between the low pressure and the Cabo Verde Islands. The
rest of the tropical Atlantic enjoys fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to locally fresh winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail
in the rest of the Atlantic.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash cloud
detectable on satellite imagery extending northward and eastward.
Medium VA concentration in vicinity of the volcano. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France at
website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes /la- palma/.

West of 65W, a cold front extends from 26N65W to 22N72W then
transitions to a shear line to Baracoa, Cuba. The front will
stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba overnight, then will dissipate
through early Tue. High pressure building behind the front will
support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through mid week, except
occasionally pulsing to fresh off Hispaniola mainly at night.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a front
moving into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri. Fresh to
strong N winds will follow the front over the waters west of 77W
through Sat.

$$
DELGADO
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