[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 1805 UTC Mon May 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W, from 13N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 41W and 47W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W, from 14N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 58W and 61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
11N16W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 04N41W where
it intercepts a tropical wave. The ITCZ continues from 03N45W to
the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted north of the ITCZ from 05N to 09N
between 48W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a weakening stationary front extends from
Sarasota, Florida to the coast of Texas near 29N95W. High
pressure centered over the Carolinas is supporting gentle to
moderate return flow over the entire basin except for west of
the Yucatan Peninsula winds are locally fresh.  Seas are in the
2-4 ft range across the Gulf.

The stationary front will dissipate today. Fresh northeast to
east winds will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan
Peninsula. High pressure will prevail near the U.S. mid-Atlantic
coast through Wed. Little change is expected through the end of
the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the basin. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and climatological low
pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over
the south central and southeastern Caribbean with 6-9 ft seas.
Gentle winds are noted over the NW Caribbean with 2-4 ft seas,
and moderate to fresh winds prevail across much of the remainder
of the basin with 3-5 ft seas.

Fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will expand
slightly northward through Tue as high pressure strengthens across
the western Atlc. Moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail
across much of the basin through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A stationary front takes the place of a cold front extending
from 31N76W to near Ft Pierce, Florida. A mid-upper level trough
axis extends from NE Florida to the NW Caribbean. Upper level
diffluence along with a very moist environment around this front
and the trough is supporting scattered moderate convection over
the northern Bahamas, north of 23N and west of 74W. ASCAT data
from 1400 UTC noted strong winds over the N Bahamas and the GOES-
16 lightning mapper reveals frequent lightning within this
convection.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 3-4 ft prevail
east of the stationary front to 60W. High pressure prevails
across the basin, anchored by 1035 mb high pressure centered
near 38N52W. Moderate to fresh winds are north of 20N with seas
of 4-6 ft. Seas east of 50W, as well as over the waters from 20N
to the equator range from 5-8 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, the stationary front will weaken
through Tue. After the front dissipates, scattered showers and
tstorms will persist this week around the Bahamas region, due to
an upper-level low that is expected to sit over the area. High
pressure will build gradually westward into the region late
tonight through Wed and then prevail through the remainder of
the week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds east of 75W and
S of 28N Wed through Fri, with gentle winds east of Florida.

$$
Mora
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