[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon May 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W, from 14N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 40W and 46W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 58W and 61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea near 11N16W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to
07N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N to 11N between 10N and 21W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 07N between 32W and 40W, and from 05N to 08N
between 49W and 56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from central Florida to the coast of
Texas near 29N95W. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted over
the far SW Gulf west of the Yucatan peninsula, and over the Bay of
Campeche. Gentle winds prevail over the far NE Gulf. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range west
of 90W and 1-3 ft east of 90W.

The stationary front will dissipate today. Fresh northeast to
east winds will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan
Peninsula. High pressure will prevail north of the basin through
Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the basin. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and climatological low pressure
over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south
central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the far
NW Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds prevail across much of
the remainder of the basin.

Fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will expand
slightly northward through Tue as high pressure strengthens across
the western Atlc. Moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail
across much of the basin through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A cold front extends from 31N76W to near Ft Pierce, Florida.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
60 nm of this boundary. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of
3-4 ft prevail north of the cold front. Elsewhere, high pressure
prevails across the basin, anchored by 1033 mb high pressure
centered near 37N51W. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail north
of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh winds generally prevail across
the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 2-4 ft
range west of 70W. East of 70W, seas are in the 4-7 ft range,
except S of 11N between 48W and 59W where seas are reaching 9 ft
in NW swell.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front off the coast of north
Florida will weaken through Tue. High pressure will build
gradually westward into the region late tonight through Wed and
then prevail through the remainder of the week.

$$
AL
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