[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon May 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 14N
southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong ITCZ-related
rainshowers are from 04N to 06N between 40W and 45W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 09N to 10N between
the tropical wave and 61W.

The scatterometer data show that fresh-to-strong NE winds are
from 06N to 15N between 49W and 57W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N19W and 06N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N21W to 06N30W and 06N39W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm of the coast of
Africa between 10W and 16W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 150 nm of the coast of Africa from 10W
eastward, from 10N southward between 16W and 21W, and from 03N
to 08N between 34W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. An
upper level trough is moving through the eastern half of the
Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front passes through central
Florida near 28N81W about 50 nm to the NNW of Lake Okeechobee,
to 26N86W, beyond the middle Texas Gulf coast.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side
of the stationary front.

The current stationary front, that is along 27N, will diminish
on Monday. Moderate winds will prevail to the south of the front
and W of 90W, tonight. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse
to strong each night, off the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure
will prevail to the north of the basin, from Monday through
Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
from 15N northward from Hispaniola  westward. An upper level
trough extends from the SE Gulf of Mexico to Belize.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the area of the upper
level cyclonic wind flow, mostly from Jamaica northward between
Haiti and 80W.

The monsoon trough passes through 11N74W in Colombia, to 09N80W
in Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough in Colombia,
and within 90 nm on either side of the rest of the monsoon
trough between Colombia and Costa Rica.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers,
cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible
precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow.

Fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea will expand
slightly northward, from tonight through Tuesday, as high
pressure strengthens in the western Atlantic Ocean. Fresh winds
are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras tonight. Moderate
to fresh trade winds will prevail basin-wide, from late Tuesday
through Thursday, as the W Atlantic Ocean ridge moves northward
along 35N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A stationary front is along 31N78W, to Florida near 28N81W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 90 nm to the east and southeast of the stationary front,
from 29N to 32N.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 25N
northward between 60W and 70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is in the area of the upper level cyclonic
wind flow.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 19N northward from 74W eastward. A 1034 mb high pressure
center is near 36N50W.

The current stationary front, that is off the coast of north
Florida, will diminish through Monday. High pressure will build
gradually westward into the region, from late Monday through
Wednesday.

$$
mt/al
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net