[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection is
observed near this tropical wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W, from 15N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 09N between 55W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 12N16W to 05N25W to 05N30W. Segments of the ITCZ continue
from 05N30W to 05N40W, and from 06N41W to 05N51W. Aside from
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, there is
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 02N to 07N
between 10W and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extends from near Bradenton, Florida to
near Houston, Texas. Moderate NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are
noted north of this front. Moderate E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are
evident over the southwest Gulf, with light to gentle breezes and
1 to 3 ft are noted elsewhere. More stable air over the western
Gulf follows an upper trough reaching from the Florida Panhandle
to the southwest Gulf. This is limiting and significant shower or
thunderstorm activity, except for a few modest showers over the
central Gulf where upper trough intersects warmer waters near the
loop current.

For the forecast, the eastern portion of the front will drift
to the southeast and stall along 27N tonight. Moderate winds will
prevail south of the front and west of 90W tonight. Fresh
northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night off the
Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure north of the basin will prevail
Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough are noted across Puerto Rico into the
Atlantic. Despite a strong Bermuda High farther north, this
pattern is supporting only moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to
6 ft seas across the Caribbean basin and 4 to 6 ft seas and over
the Gulf of Honduras, except for gentle to moderate SE winds and 2
to 4 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean. A few showers are noted
off Costa Rica and Panama due to trade wind convergence. Elsewhere,
no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident.

For the forecast, fresh trades across the south central Caribbean
will expand slightly northward tonight through Tue as high
pressure strengthens modestly across the western Atlc. Fresh winds
are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras tonight. Moderate
to fresh tradewinds will prevail basin-wide late Tue through Thu
as the western Atlantic ridge lifts northward along 35N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A weakening cold front extends from 32N76W to Cape Canaveral,
Florida. 1033 mb high pressure over the central Atlantic near
36N48W, dominates the basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are
evident across the region west of 60W, except for fresh S to SW
winds just ahead of the front, with 3 to 5 ft seas in open waters.
Farther south, fresh NE to E winds and 8 to 9 ft seas are noted
south of 15N and west of 45W to the Windward Islands. In the
eastern Atlantic, fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted
north of 25N and east of 35W to the Canary Islands. Moderate NE
to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front off the coast of
north Florida will shift slightly southeastward this evening
before stalling tonight. High pressure will build gradually
westward into the region late Mon through Wed.

$$
Christensen
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