[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W, from 03N-13N, moving
westward around 15 knots. The wave continues to be affected by the
dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer as well as strong wind shear,
which is limiting the convection to the southern portion of the
wave near the ITCZ.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W, from 15N southward,
moving westward around 15 knots. Microwave layered precipitable
water and water vapor imagery show the wave is in a deep-layered
dry environment, which is hindering the development of deep
convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 09N16W to 03N30W to 04N51W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N
east of 28W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to
07N between 30W and 43W, and from 06N to 09N between 45W and 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient in the region and an approaching weak
cold front over the SE United States is contributing toward
moderate or weaker winds across the Gulf of Mexico this evening.
A squall line over NE Mexico reaches the far west-central Gulf of
Mexico with scattered moderate convection occurring from 21N-27N
west of 93W. Seas are up to 3 ft basin-wide.

Gentle to moderate winds will prevail today as the Atlc ridge
extends W-SW across central Florida and across the SE Gulf. The
Atlc ridge extends W-SW across central Florida and to the SE Gulf.
Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night off
the Yucatan Peninsula. A weak cold front is expected to sink
across the northern Gulf tonight into Sun before stalling along
27N Sun night. Moderate north to northeast winds will develop
behind the front tonight through Sun morning. High pressure north
of the basin will prevail Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A modest N-S pressure between the Azores high and a 1010 mb low
over NW Colombia is causing NE to E fresh to locally strong
trades over the S central Caribbean. Elsewhere the E trades are
gentle to moderate. Isolated showers are noted over the Panama and
Costa Rica adjacent waters in association with the Pacific
monsoon trough that extends to N Colombia. Seas are 4-5 ft over
the central and eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

Fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will remain
generally south of 13N through Sun before expanding slightly
northward Sun night. Fresh winds are expected in the southern Gulf
of Honduras each night this weekend. Tradewinds will freshen east
of 80W Sun night through Tue as high pressure strengthens modestly
across the western Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Surface ridging extends from a 1032 mb Azores High near 37N32W
west-southwestward to the Bahamas. The N-S pressure gradient from
the ridge to the ITCZ is forcing NE to E moderate to fresh trades
E of 60W with seas in the 7-8 ft range.

For the forecast west of 65W, moderate to fresh southerly winds
will develop off the central and NE Florida coasts tonight ahead
of a cold front forecast to emerge off the southeastern CONUS
early Sun. The cold front will move across northern Florida on Sun
before stalling Sun night. High pressure will build gradually
westward into the region late Mon through Wed.

For the forecast east of 65W, the Azores High is forecast to
weaken on Tue and Wed.

$$
Ramos
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