[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat May 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, from 15N southward,
moving westward around 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N to 07N between 27W and 36W. The system has no
significant surface signature, and is primarily tracked by GFS-
based 700 mb trough diagnostics.

The axis of a tropical wave has been relocated to near 57W, from
15N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. No deep
convection is noted in association with the wave. The system has
no significant surface signature, and is primarily tracked by
GFS-based 700 mb trough diagnostics.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to 02N51W along the coast of Brazil.
Widespread moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from
03N to 06N east of 25W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 00N to 07N between 27W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure and an approaching weak cold front over the SE United
States is contributing toward moderate or weaker winds across the
Gulf of Mexico today. A squall line over NE Mexico and S Texas has
reached the Gulf of Mexico as of 1630 UTC with scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection occurring between 25N-28N west of
90W. Seas are 1-2 ft over the E and central Gulf and 3-4 ft over
the W Gulf.

Gentle to moderate winds will prevail today as the Atlc ridge
extends W-SW across central Florida and across the SE Gulf. Fresh
northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night off the
Yucatan Peninsula. The weak cold front is expected to sink across
the northern Gulf tonight into Sun before stalling along 27N Sun
night. Moderate north to northeast winds will develop behind the
front through Sun morning. High pressure north of the basin will
prevail Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A modest N-S pressure between a surface ridge along 28N and a 1010
mb Colombia Low is causing NE to E moderate to fresh trades over
the S central Caribbean. Elsewhere the E trades are gentle.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N in the SW
Caribbean in association with the Pacific monsoon trough that
extends across Costa Rica to N Colombia. Seas are 4-6 ft over the
S central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

Fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will remain
generally south of 13N through this evening before expanding
slightly northward Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the southern
Gulf of Honduras each night this weekend. Tradewinds will freshen
east of 80W Mon and Tue as high pressure strengthens modestly
across the western Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Surface ridging extends from a 1031 mb Bermuda/Azores High near
37N31W west-southwestward to the Florida peninsula. The N-S
pressure gradient from the ridge to the ITCZ is forcing NE to E
moderate to fresh trades south of 25N. Seas are 6-8 ft south of
23N and 4-6 ft north of 23N.

For the forecast west of 65W, moderate to fresh southerly winds
will develop off the NE Florida coast tonight ahead of a cold
front forecast to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early Sun. The
cold front will move across northern Florida on Sun before
stalling Sun night. High pressure will build gradually westward
into the region late Mon through Wed.

For the forecast east of 65W, a building Bermuda/Azores High will
force moderate to fresh NE to E trades over all of our waters by
Mon night, before weakening again on Tue and Wed. Seas will reach
6-8 ft across all of our forecast waters by Mon night.

$$
Landsea/Stripling
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