[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290905
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W, from 11N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 42W and 48W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W, from 11N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave axis
S of 06N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 09N14W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 03N28W.
It resumes from 04N32W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ from 19W to
40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure across the area has started to shift eastward. A
trough is analyzed across the Florida panhandle and extends just
offshore. Gentle to moderate cyclonic flow prevails around the
trough over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate east to SE flow
prevails elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 2-4 ft
range west of 94W, and 1-3 ft east of 94W.

Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf today.
Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night off
the Yucatan Peninsula. A weak cold front is expected to sink
across the northern Gulf tonight into Sun before stalling along
27N Sun night. Moderate north to northeast winds will develop
behind the front through Sun morning. High pressure north of the
basin will prevail Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge of high pressure prevails over the SW N Atlantic waters,
with a surface trough extending north of Puerto Rico. The surface
trough is helping for a weak pressure gradient across the
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds over the central and
eastern Caribbean S of 13N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the south central
Caribbean, 1-3 ft over the NW Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will remain
generally south of 13N through this evening before expanding
slightly northward Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the southern
Gulf of Honduras each night this weekend. Tradewinds will freshen
east of 80W Mon and Tue as high pressure strengthens modestly
across the western Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A weak surface ridge extends across the SW N Atlantic waters along
27N. A few surface troughs are noted across the region. One
extends from 26N65W to just north of Puerto Rico, the second one
extends from 29N56W to 19N57W, and a third one extends from 31N42W
to 28N42W. Fresh winds are noted off the coast of northern
Florida, N of 30N due to a tighter pressure gradient between the
ridge and low pressure dominating along the eastern seaboard of
the United States. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail
elsewhere N of 20N. Moderate to fresh trades are noted S of 20N.
Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the open waters W of 60W, and
4-6 ft elsewhere N of 20N. S of 20N, seas are in the 6-8 ft range.

For the forecast W of 65W, moderate to fresh southerly winds will
prevail off the NE Florida coast ahead of a cold front forecast
to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early Sun. The cold front
will move across northern Florida on Sun before stalling Sun
night. High pressure will build gradually westward into the region
late Mon through Wed.

$$
AL
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