[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290851
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W, from 11N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 42W and 48W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W, from 11N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave axis
S of 06N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 09N14W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 03N28W.
It resumes from 04N32W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ from 19W to
40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure across the area has started to shift eastward. A
trough is analyzed across the Florida panhandle and extends just
offshore. Gentle to moderate cyclonic flow prevails around the
trough over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate east to SE flow
prevails elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 2-4 ft
range west of 94W, and 1-3 ft east of 94W.

Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf today.
Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night off
the Yucatan Peninsula. A weak cold front is expected to sink
across the northern Gulf tonight into Sun before stalling along
27N Sun night. Moderate north to northeast winds will develop
behind the front through Sun morning. High pressure north of the
basin will prevail Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge of high pressure prevails over the SW N Atlantic waters,
with a surface trough extending north of Puerto Rico. The surface
trough is helping for a weak pressure gradient across the
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds over the central and
eastern Caribbean S of 13N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the south central
Caribbean, 1-3 ft over the NW Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will remain
generally south of 13N through this evening before expanding
slightly northward Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the southern
Gulf of Honduras each night this weekend. Tradewinds will freshen
east of 80W Mon and Tue as high pressure strengthens modestly
across the western Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

The east central Gulf of Mexico upper level cyclonic circulation
center from 24 hours ago has moved eastward. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow now covers the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic
Ocean and Florida from 20N northward between 64W and 84W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from Hispaniola to 28N between
the 25N64W-to-17N67W surface trough and 76W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N55W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 50W and 61W. A surface trough is along 55W/57W
from 19N to 30N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within a radius of 240 nm from the center.

A surface trough is along 25N64W, to Puerto Rico to 17N67W in
the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible
within 120 nm on either side of the surface trough.

A surface trough is along 36N43W 29N42W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on either side of the line
that runs from 26N38W to 31N42W.

A surface ridge is along 32N62W, to the Bahamas near 26N78W.

High pressure prevails across the region today. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds will develop off the NE Florida coast
tonight, ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the
southeastern CONUS early Sun. The cold front will move across
northern Florida on Sun, before stalling Sun night. High
pressure will build gradually westward into the region, from
late Mon through Wed.

$$
AL
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