[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242127
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts north to northeast gales to
strong gales to continue in the the Agadir region through at
least 25/06 UTC. Seas are expected to be rough to very rough in
this area. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast
products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N13W
to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 03N51W at the coast
of Brazil. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
south of 07N east of 18W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring between 05N and 08N west of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough stretches across the central Bay of Campeche along 95W
south of 22N. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N and 23N
between 93W and 95W. A ship off the northern coast of Yucatan
reported 25 kt winds, in an area between a trough inland and
higher pressure north of the area. Elsewhere, a high pressure
ridge northeast of the Gulf with moderate to fresh winds noted
across the basin except for light winds in the southwest and
northeast Gulf.Seas range from 2 to 4 ft in the northeast Gulf,
and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will
dominate the Gulf of Mexico through Wed early evening. Gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds are forecast for the remainder
of the forecast period, except off the Yucatan peninsula where
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are forecast during the
night hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Latest observations show fresh to strong trade winds across the
south-central Caribbean, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. This related
to strong high pressure persisting north of the region.
Elsewhere moderate to fresh trade winds are noted, with 4 to 6
ft. Fresh NE winds are also noted in the Windward Passage. Trade
wind convergence is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms
off the coast of northeast Costa Rica and southeast Nicaragua. No
significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trades will prevail across
the central and portions of the southwest Caribbean as well as
across the Windward Passage through Wed night. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are expected to dominate the central and
eastern portions of the basin through the remaining forecast
period. In the northwest Caribbean, fresh winds will dominate the
region through early Wed evening with fresh to strong winds
pulsing at night in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the gale
warning near Agadir.

Weak ridging extends east to west along 29N, west of 65W,
anchored by 1024 mb high pressure centered near 29N77W. This
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh E winds south of 22N,
where seas are 4 to 6 ft, and gentle to moderate winds north of
22N where seas are 3 to 5 ft in open waters. Farther east, a
trough is analyzed from 31N55W to 23N62W. A few showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing within 60 nm east of this trough from
23N to 25N. Broad ridging dominates the Atlantic farther east,
anchored by 1034 mb high pressure over the Azores. Fresh to
strong NE winds are noted east of the ridge along the coast of
northwest Africa, with gales expected off Morocco. Seas are 8 to
15 ft north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
trade winds are noted south of 20N, with gentle to moderate
easterly winds north of 20N, and 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the high pressure off northeast
Florida will persist through mid week. This will result in light
to gentle variable winds across most of the SW N Atlantic
waters, except over the Greater Antilles adjacent waters, the
Great Bahama Bank and the Florida Straits where moderate to
locally fresh E to NE winds are forecast. Another center of high
pressure will develop on Thu supporting moderate winds through
Sat over the areas highlighted above. Otherwise, moderate to
locally fresh S to SW winds will develop off the NE coast of
Florida Fri night through Sat night ahead of a cold front that
will exit the SE CONUS over the weekend. Farther east, little
change in the tradewinds for the next few days.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net