[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241820
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon May 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts north to northeast gales to
strong gales to continue in the the Agadir region through at
least 25/06 UTC. Seas are expected to be rough to very rough in
this area. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast
products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 0351W at the coast
of Brazil. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
south of 07N east of 18W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring between 04N and 08N west of 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough stretches across the eastern Bay of Campeche from
24N89W to 19N93W. Scattered moderate convection is between 22N
and 25N between 90W and 95W. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge
northeast of the Gulf with moderate to fresh winds noted across
the basin with light winds in the SW and NE Gulf. Seas range 3
to 6 ft.

The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds can be expected through
Tue night and then gentle to moderate winds the remainder of the
forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly off
the Yucatan peninsula tonight through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to strong convection is near the monsoon
trough in the SW Caribbean S of 12N west of 78W.  Strong trade
winds are noted in the south-central Caribbean with moderate to
fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are up to 8 ft near Colombia with 5
to 7 ft across the rest of the basin.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south-central and
portions of the southwest Caribbean as well as across the
Windward Passage through Wed night. This is due to a ridge
extension of the Azores high into the northern Caribbean and
strong high pressure over the northwest Atlantic. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are expected to dominate the central and
eastern portions of the basin through the remaining forecast
period. In the northwest Caribbean, fresh winds will dominate
the region through early Wed evening with fresh to strong winds
pulsing at night in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the gale
warning near Agadir.

A trough extends from 31N55W to 24N62W. Scattered moderate
convection exists within 300 NM east of the trough axis. High
pressure extends off the western Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb
high near 28N77W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of 25N
between 70W to 80W. Otherwise, gentle winds prevail across the
western Atlantic with seas 4 to 6 ft.

High pressure also extends across the central and eastern
Atlantic anchored by a 1034 mb high near the Azores. This is
supporting gale force winds near Agadir. Moderate to fresh winds
are noted across this area of the Atlantic with fresh to strong
north-northeasterly winds off the Morocco and Western Sahara
coast. Seas 6 to 8 ft are noted in the central Atlantic with 10
to 15 ft off the western African coast.

For west of 65W, the ridge of high pressure will dominate the
forecast region over the next several days producing moderate to
fresh easterly winds S of 25N and gentle to moderate E winds
from 25N to 27N. Light and variable winds will prevail
elsewhere.

For east of 65W, the strong breeze to strong gale N to NE winds
north of 23N and east of 20W will steadily diminish over the
next two days.  By Wednesday night, winds will be moderate or
weaker in the area.  Elsewhere little change in the tradewinds
for the next few days. The large seas near NW Africa will also
steadily diminish and drop below 8 ft by Wednesday night.
Elsewhere seas will remain generally 4 to 7 ft.

$$
Landsea
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