[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Ana is centered near 34.2N 62.2W at 22/0900
UTC or 170 nm NE of Bermuda moving WSW at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds
are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Ana is forecast to remain well
north of the forecast waters. However, large swell associated with
the subtropical storm will affect the waters north of 27N between
60W and 75W through tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning for the Canary Islands: According to the forecast
from Meteo France, gale force winds will continue today near the
Canary Islands, and gales will expand toward the coast of Morocco,
including the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Outside of the
gales, strong to near gale force winds will cover the area north
of 26N and east of 24W today. Expect seas to build to 12-14 ft
offshore Morocco this weekend, with 9-11 ft seas elsewhere north
of 22N and east of 32W. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas
Forecast products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W south of 13N, moving
W at 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm either side of
the wave axis between 46W-52W. The wave could enhance showers
over the southern Windward Islands and SE Caribbean on Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
10N14W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 02N39W to
03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N
between 33W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A well-defined 1009 mb surface low pressure is moving onshore the
Texas coast near Corpus Christi, with fresh to strong SE winds and
8 to 10 ft seas over the waters east of the low center. Scattered
moderate showers are noted across most of the western Gulf of
Mexico, north of 21N and west of 90W.

East of 90W, high pressure ridging stretching from the Carolinas
to the NE Gulf of Mexico is leading to mainly clear skies in the
NE part of the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, where seas are 8-10 ft. Light
to gentle winds, and 3-5 ft seas prevail in the SW Gulf of Mexico.

The low pressure near Corpus Christi will move further inland
today, and winds and seas will diminish across the western Gulf
waters. Fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the central and
eastern Gulf through tonight. Seas will gradually subside across
the north-central Gulf through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front along 20N is across the Windward Passage and
eastern Cuba, 20N80W. Scattered showers are along and south of
the front, from the western tip of Puerto Rico across Hispaniola
to Jamaica to the Yucatan Channel. Most of the open waters in the
eastern and central Caribbean south of 18N lack any significant
precipitation. Fresh to strong E winds prevail over the central
Caribbean, as well as in the lee of western Cuba and south of 14N
to the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas of 6-9 ft prevail over the central Caribbean, with
4-6 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Bahamas across the
western Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas across the central Caribbean through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on Subtropical
Storm Ana north of the area near Bermuda.

A stationary front passes through 31N55W, and extends to 25N62W.
Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are along
the frontal boundary. Another stationary front extends from 27N51W
to 21N64W to the Windward passage. Scattered showers and isolated
embedded thunderstorms are within 120 nm of this front. Fresh NE
winds prevail in the western Atlantic, between Florida and 75W,
with fresh to strong E winds in the Florida Straits. Winds are
gentle to moderate north of 20N between 30W and 65W. Fresh trade
winds are south of 20N. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of
25N and east of 26W, with localized areas of near-gale to gale
force in the vicinity of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front along 20N will
slowly dissipate through tonight. The pressure gradient between
high pressure off the eastern seaboard and the frontal boundary
will support fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front and W
of 70W today. Large swell associated with Subtropical Storm Ana
near Bermuda will affect the northeast forecast waters through
early Sun.

$$
Mundell
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